Watch Issued: Severe Storms Expected in the Midwest and Plains Through Saturday

Tom Moore
Published: September 16,2016
A potent disturbance aloft, a surface cold front and ample moisture will combine to produce severe thunderstorms over parts of the Plains and Midwest through Friday. On Saturday the threat shifts to the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for west-central Texas valid until 10:00 p.m. CDT. This watch area includes Midland and Abilene, Texas. 
Some locations could see damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rain, while an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Radar, Watches, and Warnings

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Here's where we expect severe storms to develop on Friday.
Friday Evening

• Forecast: The threat of severe thunderstorms is slightly greater from western Missouri and eastern Kansas down to parts of Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin and southward to parts of Illinois. 
• Threats Areas that do encounter severe thunderstorms are likely to see damaging winds and large hail, as well as locally heavy rain.
• Cities:  St. Louis | Wichita, Kansas | Oklahoma City | Amarillo, Texas | Roswell, New Mexico

Friday Evening's Thunderstorm Forecast

Saturday

• Forecast: Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible in the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma and in eastern New Mexico. 
• Threats: These thunderstorms may contain large hail and gusty winds. 
• Cities: Lubbock, Texas | Guymon, Oklahoma

Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Setup For Severe Weather

Late Week Jet Stream Forecast

In the upper atmosphere, a trough (dip in the jet stream) and associated low pressure will move through the Plains on Friday. This will provide the energy needed for thunderstorm development.

Cold front and moisture will team up to produce severe weather in the central U.S.

At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward from the Plains into the Midwest on Friday.
The cold front will interact with ample moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in thunderstorms.
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Some of these thunderstorms will turn severe with damaging winds and large hail.
The tornado threat is low but an isolated tornado can always develop.
The front will move more slowly in the central and southern Plains, so there could also be locally heavy rainfall.

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