Typhoon Meranti Forecast to Strengthen and May Threaten Taiwan This Week

Chris Dolce and Tom Moore
Published: September 11,2016
Typhoon Meranti continues to organize in the western Pacific and is forecast to become a strong typhoon, possibly impacting Taiwan this week. Meranti may also head into southeastern China later in the week ahead.
(MORE: Typhoon Alley: Where The Most Intense Tropical Cyclones Most Frequently Occur)

Latest Status and Forecast

As of Sunday night (EDT), Meranti was centered just over 700 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

Current Storm Info

Meranti is being steered to the west-northwest along the southwest periphery of an upper-level high pressure system that is located to its north.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Meranti will continue to intensify over the next couple of days. Factors leading to the expected strengthening include low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures.
It's possible that Meranti could undergo a period of rapid intensification. This is when maximum sustained winds increase by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in 24 hours or less.
(MORE: The Atlantic's Category 5 Drought)
The JTWC is forecasting that Meranti may eventually become the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane before possibly approaching Taiwan.

Taiwan, China and Northern Philippines Should Monitor Closely

Although there is uncertainty in the forecast track, all interests in Taiwan, the northern Philippines and southeastern China should monitor Meranti's progress and take appropriate action if needed.
In some ways, the forecast track for Meranti resembles the one Nepartak took in early July. Nepartak made landfall as a super typhoon (winds 150 mph or greater) near Taitung City in southeastern Taiwan as a Category 4 equivalent. It then moved into southeast China as a tropical storm.
(MORE: Super Typhoon Nepartak Recap)

Projected Path and Intensity

Here's a general timing of when Meranti's impacts may arrive and what they may be. Keep in mind, however, that all of this will be highly dependent on the ultimate track that Meranti takes and how strong it becomes.
Taiwan

• Timing: Meranti's worst potential impacts would be Wednesday, local time (Tuesday night - early Wednesday U.S. time...Taiwan is 12 hours ahead of U.S. EDT).
• Possible impacts: Damaging winds, flooding rain, mudslides and storm surge flooding in areas that are prone. Meranti's exact path in relation to Taiwan will dictate the severity of any impacts.

Northern Philippines

• Timing: At the moment, the core of Meranti is forecast to pass north of the northern Philippines on Tuesday, local time.
• Possible Impacts: Locally heavy rain is the most likely threat. However, a shift south in the forecast path could bring other impacts, as well.

China 

• Timing: Meranti is forecast to move into southeastern China on Thursday, local time.
• Possible Impacts: Potential threats in eastern China will greatly depend on how much the mountainous terrain of Taiwan disrupts the typhoon. At the very least, heavy rainfall can be expected, which may result in flooding.

Rainfall Forecast

Parts of Taiwan, particularly the southern and eastern sides of the island, could pick up over 12 inches of rain as Meranti passes over or just south of the island.
The north side of the island, including Taipei, may get spared of the highest rain totals, but at least 3 inches of rain looks likely there.

Rainfall Forecast

The heavy rainfall will then spread northward into southeastern China, with over 5 inches of rain possible along the coast.
Due to these copious amounts of rain, flooding and mudslides are both major concerns in Taiwan and southeastern China.
Check back for updates on Meranti the next few days for more details on its potential impacts.

PHOTOS: Nepartak Impacts Taiwan and China (Early July 2016)