Tropical Storm Karl Struggling Now, But Still Could Be a Hurricane Threat for Bermuda This Weekend

September 20,2016
Tropical Storm Karl may still be fighting wind shear and dry air, but is expected to find a more favorable environment to intensify into a hurricane later this week, and may pass near Bermuda this weekend.
As of Monday night, Karl was centered about 530 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Information

To be blunt, it's not the most impressive tropical storm on infrared satellite imagery, with clusters of convection not terribly well organized around the center of circulation, thanks to the twin nemeses mentioned above (wind shear, dry air).
Karl is forecast to move west-northwest along the southern periphery of a ridge of high pressure in the central Atlantic through the couple of days.
Karl will not directly impact the Leeward Islands as it passes safely to the north later this week.
(MORE: Mid-Season Atlantic Report Card)

Projected Path

As Karl reaches the western periphery of the aforementioned area of high pressure, it will begin to turn north by late this week into the weekend.
Karl is expected to become a hurricane somewhere south of Bermuda by Friday as wind shear finally relaxes, the atmosphere becomes less dry, and Karl moves over warmer water.
Karl will then take a sharp turn northeast this weekend. How sharp the turn is in relation to Bermuda will determine how close it passes to the archipelago this weekend, and thus the impacts there. For now, this is too uncertain to call.
(FORECAST: Bermuda)

Karl's Steering Late Week

For this reason, residents and visitors of Bermuda should monitor the progress of Karl closely.
Karl is no threat to the U.S., other than the eventual generation of some larger swells reaching the East Coast.

MORE: Hurricanes from Above