The Next Atlantic Named Storm Could Be Coming Soon

Tom Moore
Published: September 10,2016
A strong tropical wave well east of the Lesser Antilles is disorganized, but it could develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next day or two.
The National Hurricane Center has designated this as Invest 94L. They indicate this system has a high chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 48 hours.
(MORE: When Atlantic Season Peak Arrives)

Invest 94L

Right Now: More Favorable Conditions?

Computer model trends indicate that the tropical wave should continue in a general west to west-northwest trajectory over the next few days.
For a tropical cyclone to form, there needs to be persistent convection, or thunderstorm activity, near a surface low-pressure circulation.
(MORE: Why Tropical Waves Are Important During the Hurricane Season)

Eastern Atlantic Satellite /Wind Shear

If an upper-level trough can stay out of the tropical wave's way and instead work to produce rising air and, thus, thunderstorms over the tropical disturbance, rather than hostile wind shear, this disturbance could develop into a tropical cyclone Sunday or Monday. It remains to be seen how much more favorable conditions will become in the next day or two.
That being said, this system poses no threat to any land masses over the next several days. It could turn harmlessly into the open waters of the Atlantic over time, but we will continue to monitor the situation.
(MORE: Record Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane Drought)

Invest 93L: Unfavorable Area For Development

Invest 93L

An area of disorganized thunderstorm activity extends for several hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. The National Hurricane Center has designated this as Invest 93L. With surface pressures high and some wind shear around, this system is not expected to develop over the next couple of days.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible around the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into Sunday.
(MORE: Fall Outlook Update)
This time of year, tropical waves, also known as African easterly waves, line up over Africa, south of the Sahara Desert, and emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A fraction of these tropical waves serve as the seed for an Atlantic Basin tropical storm or hurricane each season.
Regardless of whether these systems become a threat, now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits.

MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names