Published: September 7,2016
Severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail, will set up over portions of the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through late week.
In addition to the severe threat, flash flooding is also a concern over the next few days because any storms that form will have plenty of moisture to work with, due to a southerly wind flow off the Gulf of Mexico, so excessive rain amounts are possible within a short period of time.
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats through Friday.
Severe Weather Forecast
Thursday- Forecast: Thunderstorms are expected from the interior Northeast to the central Plains.
- Threats: A few of the storms could turn severe with gusty winds and hail being the main hazards. Heavy rain could cause flash flooding.
- Forecast: Severe storms and heavy rain will be possible from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
- Threats: Damaging winds, hail and flash flooding.
- Cities: Indianapolis | Kansas City | St. Louis
Friday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Flash Flood Threat
Heavy rain and flash flooding will still be an issue Thursday into Friday. More areas of locally heavy rain are possible, especially on Friday and Friday night, across the mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest.Due to this, flash flooding is a serious concern.
Additional Rainfall through Saturday Morning
The heaviest rain looks to set up over parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Missouri.
Although there is plenty of moisture lingering across these areas, rainfall will be enhanced by more moisture moving into parts of the Midwest from the southwestern U.S., thanks to Newton.
Severe Weather Setup
As a cold front pushes eastward across the Midwest over the next couple of days, rounds of thunderstorms will pop up out ahead of it, especially during the "heating of the day."This cold front will interact with a strong low-level jet, or river of fast moving air just above the surface, as well as warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.
The warm, moist air from the Gulf will provide plenty of moisture for the storms to work with, creating a risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
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