Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Flooding Threaten the Midwest through Late Week

Brian Donegan
Published: September 7,2016
Severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail, will set up over portions of the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through late week.
In addition to the severe threat, flash flooding is also a concern over the next few days because any storms that form will have plenty of moisture to work with, due to a southerly wind flow off the Gulf of Mexico, so excessive rain amounts are possible within a short period of time.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats through Friday.

Severe Weather Forecast

Thursday

• Forecast: Thunderstorms are expected from the interior Northeast to the central Plains.
• Threats: A few of the storms could turn severe with gusty winds and hail being the main hazards. Heavy rain could cause flash flooding.

Friday

• Forecast: Severe storms and heavy rain will be possible from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
• Threats: Damaging winds, hail and flash flooding.
• Cities: Indianapolis | Kansas City | St. Louis

Friday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Flash Flood Threat

Heavy rain and flash flooding will still be an issue Thursday into Friday. More areas of locally heavy rain are possible, especially on Friday and Friday night, across the mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest.
Due to this, flash flooding is a serious concern.

Additional Rainfall through Saturday Morning

An additional broad swath of 1- to 3-inch rain amounts is expected across parts of the northern Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest through Saturday morning, with isolated areas seeing upwards of 3 to 5 inches. Keep in mind, a lot of this rain may fall in a short period of time, hence the risk of flash flooding.
The heaviest rain looks to set up over parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Missouri.
Although there is plenty of moisture lingering across these areas, rainfall will be enhanced by more moisture moving into parts of the Midwest from the southwestern U.S., thanks to Newton.

Severe Weather Setup

As a cold front pushes eastward across the Midwest over the next couple of days, rounds of thunderstorms will pop up out ahead of it, especially during the "heating of the day."
This cold front will interact with a strong low-level jet, or river of fast moving air just above the surface, as well as warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.

The interaction of the cold front and low-level jet will provide the necessary ingredients to produce strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
The warm, moist air from the Gulf will provide plenty of moisture for the storms to work with, creating a risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

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PHOTOS: Plains, Midwest Mid-June 2016 Severe Weather and Flooding