Sunday, September 4, 2016

Atlantic tropical storm uptick to pause briefly following Hermine's US impact

By , AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
September 4,2016; 8:19PM,EDT
 
While new tropical development in the wake of Hermine is unlikely during the next several days, additional pulses of tropical activity are in store during September and October.
First, Hermine will batter the mid-Atlantic coast with extremely rough surf, beach erosion, coastal flooding and gusty winds for the next few days.
Behind Hermine, the train of disturbances in the tropical Atlantic will continue. During September and into October, dozens of disturbances move westward from Africa and toward the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic.

When these disturbances move into a region where atmospheric conditions are favorable for development, a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane can be born.
It appears that dry air, dust and disruptive winds have become re-established over the tropical Atlantic in the short-term, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
These conditions will result in a lull of new tropical activity in the Atlantic for a time.

"We see no new tropical development into the middle of this week," Kottlowski said.
One tropical disturbance, dubbed 92L, that emerged from Africa during late August was strong at first, but has since weakened. This disturbance will drift westward across the Caribbean with enhanced showers and thunderstorms early this week.
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"However, development of this disturbance into a tropical cyclone is not expected in the near term," AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey said.
It is possible that as 92L enters the Gulf of Mexico, conditions could become more favorable for organization and strengthening late this week.

On average, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10. Hurricane season continues into November.
Cycles of tropical and non-tropical activity are not uncommon during the hurricane season, including near the height of the season.
With more pulses of tropical activity in the Atlantic an almost certainty, there is the risk of an additional landfall or two in the United States by a tropical storm and/or hurricane.

In lieu of another tropical storm or hurricane threatening land, there is a significant chance of additional episodes where multiple systems can spin up in the Atlantic at the same time.
 
 

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