Winter Storm Regis Taking Aim on Northeast; Heaviest Snow Expected in New England (FORECAST)

March 20,2016

The final chapter of Winter Storm Regis will deliver a swath of snow from parts of the New England into Monday as a nor'easter tracks well off the East Coast. Portions of eastern Massachusetts and Downeast Maine are forecast to see the heaviest snow amounts from Regis.
(MORE: Latest Regis Impacts/News)

Latest Radar

The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories from Long Island to southeast New England and Downeast Maine. Snowfall totals of 6 inches or more are likely in parts of eastern New England, with some locations locally seeing up to 10 inches of snow.
(INTERACTIVE: Radar | Storm Reports)

Winter Weather Alerts

Regis first brought snow to parts of the Rockies, including Denver, Thursday into Friday. Light snow accumulations were reported from Regis on Saturday in the far northwest suburbs of Washington, D.C. and parts of the central Appalachians through Sunday. Light snow then grazed the Baltimore to Philadelphia corridor and points east across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night.
A recap of snowfall reports so far is at the bottom of this article.
(MORE: How Winter Storms are Named)
Here is our latest snowfall forecast followed by the timing for this final phase of Regis.

Regis Forecast Impacts: How Much Snow?

• Best potential for 6 inches of snow (locally up to 10 inches): far eastern Long Island, southeast Massachusetts (from near Boston southward), Rhode Island, far southeast Connecticut and Downeast Maine.
• Light snow amounts (less than 3 inches): New Jersey and the New York City metro area.
• Wind could cause power outages: Some gusts up to 40 mph are possible in southeast Massachusetts into early Monday, which, coupled with accumulating wet snow, may lead to sporadic power outages and a few downed limbs. Coastal flooding should be minimal from this system.

Snowfall Forecast

Regis Forecast Timeline

Through Monday

• The strengthening offshore low tracks from off Nantucket Island to Atlantic Canada.
• Snow, along with moderate winds, spread from Long Island to southeast New England into eastern Maine and Atlantic Canada.
• Wintry driving conditions are possible at least for the Monday morning commute in eastern/coastal New England. Any untreated roads may remain snow-covered into Monday evening, as well.
• Travel impacts include slick travel along portions of the I-95 corridor from New London to Boston through Monday morning.
• FORECAST: Providence | Boston | Bangor, Maine​

Monday's Forecast

Recap of Winter Storm Regis

Eastern States Recap:
Here are some of the top snowfall totals by state from Regis in the East, so far.
Maryland: 4.5 inches in Oakland
North Carolina: 6 inches in Newfound Gap (elevation of 5,049 feet)
Virginia: 4 inches near Linden
West Virginia: 7 inches near Cherry Grove
Rockies Recap:
Storm-prone Interstate 80 was once again shut down due to snow and wind from Rawlins to Laramie, Wyoming Thursday night into early Friday, but has since reopened.
Snow from this system impacted the Rockies and central High Plains, with some snow inching across the state of Kansas early Friday.
Some top snowfall as of Friday night include:

• 18.2 inches at Rabbit Ears, Colorado.
• 16.9 inches at Tower, Colorado.
• 13.0 inches near Boulder, Colorado.
• 10.5 inches at Aspen Springs, Colorado.
• 0.3 inches near Milberger, Kansas.

Why Was this Such a Difficult Forecast

Nor'easters are often a forecast challenge, but this particular system gave meteorologists whose task is to interpret various computer forecast model guidance into forecasts a headache.
One of the reasons for the uncertainty was a complicated upper-level pattern.
It wasn't simply just one upper-level system giving birth to offshore low pressure, but rather a complex interaction of (A) a digging shortwave trough from the Rockies, (B) a remnant circulation from a stalled gyre of low pressure over the Upper Midwest and (C) a sharp southward dip in the jet stream nosediving southeastward from Canada.

The other challenge was simply that it's late in the "snow season". Air masses by early spring are typically only marginally supportive for snow in lower elevations.

A man rollerblades near the Bethesda Terrace in Central Park, Manhattan, New York City, March 9,2016 as people take advantage of the warm weather in the city.
(TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

Furthermore, the lack of snowcover thanks to the recent warmth since February has allowed ground temperatures to remain rather warm, which would serve to, at least initially, melt the first flakes of snow hitting the ground.
Speaking of recent warmth, consider what we've seen recently in the East:

• A record warm December-February in New England, and one of the warmest on record in much of the East. 
• A rash of severe thunderstorms as far north as Maine in late February.
• The warmest temperatures so early in the season on March 9 in the Northeast, including low 80s in Albany, New York.
• Through March 16, this has been the least snowy season-to-date in both Albany, New York (10.3 inches), and Binghamton, New York (22.3 inches).

MORE: Winter Storm Regis (PHOTOS)