Patricia Pushes Inland After Becoming Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record (FORECAST)

October 23,2015
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane ever known to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico after the center of its eye crossed the coast of Jalisco state early Friday evening. While its winds are losing strength, damage is still expected as its center of circulation slices into the interior of southwest Mexico overnight.
Earlier Friday, Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere as its maximum sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph (320 kph) and its central pressure fell to 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).
(MORE: Mexico Prepares for Patricia)
The 10 p.m. CDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows that Patricia has weakened to a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph maximum sustained winds. Its forward motion has increased to 20 mph, as the storm races off to the north-northeast.
At 6:15 p.m. CDT, the eye of Hurricane Patricia made landfall near Cuixmala in Jalisco state of southwest Mexico. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated at 165 mph, still firmly within the Category 5 range on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
An automated weather observation site in Cuixmala reported a 185-mph wind with a gust of 211 mph at the time of landfall, but NOAA cautioned that these measurements have not been evaluated for quality or calibration.

An enhanced satellite image showing Category 5 Hurricane Patricia at landfall near Cuixmala, Mexico at 6:15 p.m. CDT, Oct. 23, 2015.

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds earlier Friday, Hurricane Patricia now holds the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma almost exactly 10 years ago. At the 1 p.m. CDT advisory the minimum central pressure was lowered to 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter airborne reconnaissance mission late Thursday night provided critical data demonstrating the extreme intensification of Hurricane Patricia in near-real time. A new NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reached the eye of Patricia early Friday afternoon to gather additional direct measurements of the storm's intensity.

Unprecedented Among Pacific Hurricanes

Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early Friday. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory.

Latest Storm Status and Satellite Image

Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997.
While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is by far the strongest hurricane in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

Dangerous Situation Persists in Mexico

Despite a steady weakening trend, Patricia will continue to pose a major threat to Mexico in terms of damaging winds and flash flooding. As of 10 p.m. CDT, Patricia was still a powerful Category 4 hurricane.

Forecast Track

The center of Patricia has pushed inland through the state of Jalisco on a path that has likely spared the popular coastal resort city of Puerto Vallarta, moving east of that city and west of the inland metropolis of Guadalajara, Mexico's second-largest city.
(MAP: Track Hurricane Patricia with Our New Interactive Storm Tracker)
The adjoining states of Colima and Nayarit will also feel some effects of Hurricane Patricia, mainly in the form of heavy rainfall, flooding and possibly mudslides.
As of 9:50 p.m. CDT Friday, the city of Colima had reported 158 millimeters (6.22 inches) of rainfall over a 27-hour period.
(Forecast: Guadalajara | Manzanillo | Puerto Vallarta)
Watches and warnings remained in effect for parts of Mexico's Pacific coast as of 10 p.m. CDT Friday:

• A hurricane warning includes the Pacific coast of Mexico from San Blas to Punta San Telmo. This warning includes the major coastal resort cities of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo.
• A tropical storm warning is also in effect from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, as well as north of San Blas to El Roblito.

While the resort area of Ixtapa and Zihuatanejo may see heavy rainfall associated with Patricia, there are no watches or warnings for tropical storm or hurricane conditions there. Acapulco is also not under any watches or warnings for Patricia.

Rainfall Forecast

Patricia remained a Category 5 hurricane at landfall, making it capable of causing catastrophic wind damage.
The good news is the core of strongest winds only occurred over a very small area near the center, with hurricane force winds that extended outward up to 30 miles from the center at landfall. Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 175 miles, although the size and intensity of the wind field has continued to shrink as the storm pushes inland.

Sustained Wind Forecast

Only one Category 5 hurricane had ever previously been known to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast. That hurricane followed a path similar to that of Hurricane Patricia and struck near Puerto Vallarta in late October 1959, causing some 1,800 deaths.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
This is the first time a Category 5 hurricane has posed an imminent threat to land in North America since Hurricane Felix approached Nicaragua in September 2007.
Patricia is expected to dump 8 to 12 inches (200 to 300 millimeters) of rain over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Localized amounts as high as 20 inches (500 millimeters) are possible.

Watches/Warnings

Once this system moves inland, mid-level moisture and energy from it may get pulled into the south-central U.S. This may add more fuel to a heavy rain and flooding threat in Texas and nearby states this weekend.

Impressive Rapid Intensification

Patricia rapidly organized and intensified from Wednesday night through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds with the storm increased 115 mph in a 24-hour window from 85 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Thursday to 200 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Friday.
During that same time, the minimum central pressure of Patricia also decreased 100 millibars, from 980 millibars to 880 millibars.
This places Patricia among the most rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones ever witnessed anywhere in the world since the advent of modern meteorology.
MORE: Hurricane Patricia (PHOTOS)