Published: October 23,2015
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
For the second time this year, excessive rainfall is forecast for areas of Texas where drought conditions have worsened in recent months. A series of heavy rainfalls in May dumped more than 20 inches of rain on parts of the state, virtually wiping out a long-term drought and causing destructive flash floods. Since then, the state has snapped back into drought, setting the stage for wildfires over the past few weeks.
(MORE: Drought Returns Again | May Floods Leave Death, Destruction)
On Friday, a flash flood emergency was issued for portions of Navarro County in northeastern Texas, as 13.43 inches of rain fell at Corsicana. Numerous roads in the city were left impassable from high water.
Roads were closed due to flooding on Friday in the Fort Worth, Texas area. In Commerce, Texas early Friday afternoon there were reports of a water rescue and water coming into homes. The rainfall total in Dallas as of just before 12 p.m. CDT was 4.59 inches.
Portions of both I-35 and I-45 south of the metroplex were shut down on Friday due to excessive water on the roadways.
Flooding was reported on Thursday in Midland, Texas, where vehicles became submerged in high water. Water rescues and flooded homes were also reported in Odessa, Texas, early Thursday.
A persistent band of thunderstorms also produced excessive rainfall in far southern Texas late Thursday, mainly across Willacy and Kennedy counties. Radar estimated in excess of 6 inches of rainfall in parts of the area.
With respect to coastal flooding, the Corpus Christi area was hardest hit on Thursday where several roadways were flooded. Tides were running as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal levels.
For the latest news on the impacts from the flooding, click the link below.
(MORE: Water Rescues, Homes Flooded)
Here are the details on the heavy rain threat and how the tropics may be involved.
Heavy Rain, Flood Threat in the Southern Plains
Persistent southeasterly winds are pumping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the southern Plains, where it will interact with an area of low pressure aloft. This will contribute to heavy rains across much of Texas through Saturday, expanding east into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast by Sunday and Monday.Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service for much of Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The watches were recently expanded east into portions of Louisiana.
Flood Alerts
Forecast Next 5 Days
In addition, moisture and energy from Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific could be involved in this setup by this weekend. Computer forecast models are showing that after it makes landfall in Mexico, the mid-level remnants will get pulled northeastward toward the Texas Gulf Coast by a southward dip in the jet stream over the western and central United States.
(MORE: Category 5 Hurricane Patricia Bears Down on Mexico)
In all of the above mentioned areas, flash flooding is possible where heavy rain persists the longest. However, small-scale details within this complex setup make nailing down placement of the highest rainfall totals a bit challenging.
Our rainfall forecast map shows that a widespread area of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley has the potential to see 3 or more inches of rain through this weekend. Some areas may pick up 15 to 20 inches or more of total rainfall.
So far, the heaviest rain has fallen in a swath from central Texas, northeastward to near and just southeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. This region has the greatest short-term flooding threat through Saturday, as bands of heavy rain pass over locations that have already received excessive rainfall.
Rainfall Forecast
Tides are expected to run at least 1 to 2 feet above normal for several tidal cycles over the next few days for much of the Texas coast, eventually eastward to the New Orleans area by Sunday and Monday.
Coastal flood advisories have been issued for portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, where widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected.
(FORECASTS: S. Padre Island | Corpus Christi | Houston | Lake Charles, Louisiana)
This rain is needed to help a relatively rapidly-developing flash drought, which set in over the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from mid-summer on.
The heavy rain threat, while squelching the recent wildfires, may be too much of a good thing in these areas, instead triggering flash flooding.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Timing the Flood Threat
Saturday:- Main Threat Areas: central Texas to start the day, then spreading east across Texas, into southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and possibly western Louisiana.
- Cities: Austin | Dallas-Fort Worth | Houston | Little Rock
Saturday's Forecast
- Main Threat Areas: eastern Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas.
- Cities: Houston | Lake Charles | Shreveport
Sunday's Forecast
- Main Threat Area: Louisiana, although a broad area of scattered light rain is expected from eastern Texas to as far east as parts of Georgia.
- Cities: Lake Charles | New Orleans | Shreveport
Monday's Forecast
Improvement Later Next Week
Low pressure and the swath of greatest moisture are forecast to move north through the Mississippi Valley early next week.This will be in response to an upper level trough picking up the energy and merging the system with another surface low, diving east through the north-central states.
The result will be a decrease in intensity of rain Monday into Tuesday across the Texas and Louisiana vicinity, with drying conditions for the middle of the week.
At the same time, coastal flooding concerns will ease after Monday as low pressure lifts north and away from the Deep South.
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