WeatherFanatics: Brazil Drought: El Nino Impacts and Political Unrest

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Brazil Drought: El Nino Impacts and Political Unrest

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

June 5,2014; 8:10PM,EDT

A drought has built across parts of Brazil over the past year, including the highly populated Sao Paulo area, and the onset of El Niño threatens to aggravate drought conditions.
Short-term impacts may include water rationing or even water cuts for some across the region, with long-term impacts potentially exacerbating political unrest across the country, according to Stratfor Global Intelligence.
Rainfall over the past year is more than 17 inches below normal in Sao Paulo, leading to the widespread drought across the region. The dry season, which lasts through September, will offer little relief from the ongoing drought.
Residents of some poorer communities surrounding Sao Paulo have complained about water cuts since March, according to the Associated Press.
The Basic Sanitation Company of the State of Sao Paulo stated that, "There is no rationing and restriction of water consumption in any of the 365 municipalities served by our company." However, many people across the region are fearful that with millions of people expected to arrive in the coming weeks for the World Cup, water restrictions could become more severe.
In an attempt to limit the impacts of the drought, water has been pumped from Sao Paulo's main reservoir to supply over 9 million people living in the region. As a result, reservoir levels are now at historically low levels.

This May 14, 2014, photo shows cracked earth where there once was water at the Jaguari dam, which is part of the Cantareira System, responsible for providing water to the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, in Braganca Paulista, Brazil. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)
With millions of people already being impacted by the drought, increased attention is being directed at the weather as people look for relief. Normal monthly rainfall during the month of June in Sao Paulo is only 53 mm (2.09 inches). Accuweather long-range meteorologists predict near- to below-normal rainfall for the month, bringing little or no aid to the dangerously low water reserves of the region.
An El Niño, or a weather phenomenon noted by above-normal water temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to develop in the coming months, and this could have a drastic impact on the weather across the region.
"The subtropical high pressure area off eastern Brazil tends to be stronger in El Niño years, which tends to deflect systems south of Sao Paulo," AccuWeather.com Global Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. "Typically, this results in fronts stalling out over far southeastern Brazil."
Below-normal precipitation is expected drought-stricken northern Brazil, while above-normal precipitation is predicted across areas farther south in Brazil.
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The ability of any storm systems to advance northward into Sao Paulo and surrounding areas could bring much needed relief to millions of people.
However, even above-normal rainfall during the winter months will do little to erase the established drought. In fact, the El Niño could delay the return of moisture, which typically arrives in late October and November, normally signaling the start of the wet season.
Political unrest continues to rise for several reasons across Brazil, including the upcoming World Cup, which is the most expensive in history, funded with money that many Brazilians would rather see used to enhance education and health care across the country, according to the Associated Press.
National elections are set for later this year and if an ongoing drought leads to increased water rationing and unrest within Brazil's largest voting center, opposition candidates could surge to victory, according to Stratfor Global Intelligence. The state secretary of sanitation and water resources has claimed that current water supplies would last through March 2015, even without any water rationing. However, other Brazilian committees have claimed that water reserves could be exhausted by as early as August or September.
The effects of this ongoing drought could have lasting impacts on the political landscape of Brazil, at the local, state and national level, depending on what actions must be taken to combat the ongoing drought in the coming months.

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