WeatherFanatics: NYC: Tropical Rainstorm Karen Could Follow a Warm Weekend

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

October 4,2013; 9:14PM,EDT

Unseasonably warm conditions will continue around New York City through the weekend, ahead of possible drenching rain and gusty winds from Karen.
High temperatures within a few degrees of 80 and generally rain-free weather will continue around the region through the day Sunday.
However, two weather systems have a chance at bringing a dose of heavy rain from late Monday into Tuesday.

A front from the Plains is forecast to sweep off the East coast Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are in store with a southerly flow of moisture.
Surviving within that flow may be Karen as a tropical rainstorm.
If Karen's rain does make the trip this far north, it would raise the possibility of flash and urban flooding, as well as travel delays, most likely Monday night with perhaps some lingering effects during Tuesday morning's rush hour.
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Most areas could easily handle a couple of inches of rain with few problems as the last thorough soaking was Sept. 21 and 22. There is a chance of heavier rainfall if Karen gets totally involved.
Southerly winds ahead of and during the rain may be rather strong and gusty Monday into Monday night. Tides may run a foot or two above published values with minor flooding at times of high tide possible as a result.
Some areas near and just east of the track of the center of circulation of Karen could be hit with a severe thunderstorm during Monday afternoon or evening.
The air behind the front and/or Karen next week will be cooler than this week, but not abnormally so. Temperatures will still average near to above normal for the rest of next week.