Extended stretch of dry and comfortable weather to span first week of October for much of UK

October 1,2016; 12:19AM,EDT

 

 

A large chunk of the United Kingdom will catch a break from the recent unsettled weather during the first week of October.
Dry weather set to encompass the U.K. to end this weekend will be the theme for the upcoming week across Wales and England.The storm track will shift northward, causing rain to be absent on most, if not all, days next week.Sunny spells will be common through the week. Each afternoon will be comfortable with temperatures rising slightly above normal to 16-19 C (60-67 F).
The warmest conditions will unfold later this week in northern England.

The weather will give residents ample opportunity to enjoy outdoor activities. Conditions will be ideal to take a lunch break outside in London, Manchester and Cardiff.
Brollies and wellies will not be needed by those planning to attend the Great Bath Feast.
Rainy spells will instead be directed at Northern Ireland and Scotland.
The rain from Monday into Tuesday will be accompanied by gusty winds, making holding onto brollies in Belfast and Glasgow difficult. Localized downpours can lead to slower travel.
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It is possible for a very odd and light shower to graze Wales, western and northern England on Tuesday. The shower chance will quickly end for the second half of the week.
Rain is more likely to spread eastward to Aberdeen and Edinburgh for a short time early next week.
Rainy spells later in the week should target more of northern and western parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, allowing eastern Scotland to experience in the dry and mild weather.

Cooler air, showers to aid in wildfire efforts across California this weekend

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

September 30,2016; 11:04PM,EDT

 

Improving weather over the next several days will aid officials in battling wildfires across California.
The extreme heat and gusty winds due to a Santa Ana wind came to an end earlier this week. The weather for the remainder of this week will benefit firefighters trying to contain fires.
"Weak winds and more seasonable temperatures will allow firefighters to contain blazes with ease through Saturday," AccuWeather Meteorologist and firefighter Evan Duffey said.
At least four new fires were sparked earlier this week, according to Cal Fire.
Firefighters ignite a backfire to stop the Loma fire from spreading near Morgan Hill, Calif., Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2016. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
Evacuations are in order for portions of Santa Clara County due to the formation of the Loma Fire on Monday afternoon, according to Cal Fire. This fire, located south of San Jose, has already destroyed eight single residence homes and nine outbuildings. Over 300 structures remain threatened.
The Marshes Fire in Tuolumne County started due to a vehicle parked on dry grass.
Highs in the 90s and even 100s F across much of California earlier this week will be replaced with highs in the 70s and 80s into the weekend.
Much of California will be sunny and dry through Saturday; however a few thunderstorms could increase the wildfire threat across the Sierra Nevada.
"Monsoonal thunderstorms will continue across the Intermountain West into the weekend, but a few dry thunderstorms may occur across the Sierra Nevada through Friday, which could spark a new fire," Duffey said.
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By the second half of the weekend, a storm is forecast to dive southward across California and bring the chance for some rain, mountain snow and a brief shot of cooler air.
"A storm will dive into California late this weekend and into early next week producing spotty showers across northern and central California," Duffey said.
This storm will bring air cool enough to produce snow showers across the northern portions of the Sierra Nevada. Snow levels will drop to near 6.500 feet during Sunday night.

Little if any rainfall will reach Southern California.
Winds will pick up and be constantly changing direction, especially across Southern California, which could lead to erratic wildfire behavior for any blazes yet to be contained. The cooler conditions would only lead to a low chance for new wildfires to ignite.
Vintage cars line a property after the Loma fire burned through Loma Chiquita Road near Morgan Hill, Calif., on Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2016. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
"This weekend could be the end of the wildfire season for much of northern and central California," Duffey said.
Quiet conditions are expected to return to California to start next week. Seasonable temperatures and calm winds will keep wildfires under control and limit the development of new fires.

 

World Weather Hot Spot for September 30-October 1,2016 from accuweather.com

Chicoteague Island,Virginia: Very heavy rain;received a whopping 7.36 inches of rain on Thursday (September 29,2016)

WeatherWhys for September 30,2016 from accuweather.com

The growing season is defined as the period of days between the last freeze in the spring and the first killing freeze in the fall.

National Temperature and Rainfall Extremes for September 30,2016 from accuweather.com

As of 1:50AM,EDT/10:50PM,PDT

Daily U.S. Extremes

past 24 hours

	Extreme	Location
High	106°	Death Valley, CA
Low	25°	Bodie State Park, CA
Precip	3.18"	Allentown, PA

This Date in Weather History for September 30,2016 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Friday,September 30,2016

 

 

 

 

1959 - Three tornadoes spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Gracie killed 12 persons at Ivy VA. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - A nineteen month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, which made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1977 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 108 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - Thunderstorms, which had inundated northern sections of Oklahoma with heavy rain, temporarily shifted southward producing 4 to 8 inches rains from Shawnee to Stilwell. Baseball size hail and 80 mph winds ripped through parts of southeast Oklahoma City, and thunderstorm winds caused more than half a million dollars damage at Shawnee. (Storm Data)

1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Michigan produced hail an inch in diameter at Pinckney, and wind gusts to 68 mph at Wyandotte. A thunderstorm in northern Indiana produced wet snow at South Bend. Seven cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 101 degrees at downtown Sacramento CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida, and in the western U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Fort Myers FL was their tenth record high for the month. Highs of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 99 degrees at Fresno CA were records for the date, and the temperature at Borrego Springs CA soared to 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the upper 80s and 90s from the Northern and Central High Plains Region to Minnesota. Bismarck ND reported a record high of 95 degrees, and the temperature reached 97 degrees at Broadus MT. Afternoon thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Wendover UT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

New York City metro-area forecast for September 30-October 14,2016 from weatherforyou.com

Here's the 15-day weather forecast for the New York City metro-area for the period of the last day of September and the first 2 weeks of October (September 30-October 14),2016 from The Weather Channel's web-site;weather.com










Tonight,September 30-October 1: Remaining cloudy,rainy,raw,dank and dreary,with a slight chance for a rain shower and a low temperature dropping to the middle 50's,overnight.As of 1:40AM,EDT, October 1,it's cloudy and in the middle 50's,with 97% humidity,in White Plains,NY,and it's 56 degrees and cloudy,with 90% humidity,in New York City.

Tomorrow,October 1: October of 2016 begins where September of 2016 left off as it'll be remaining cloudy,rainy,raw,dank and dreary,with considerable cloudiness and a chance for occasional afternoon rain showers and a high temperature of just 60-65 degrees.

Tomorrow night,October 1-2: Remaining cloudy,rainy,raw,and seasonably mild for very early autumn with occasional rain showers continuing and a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Sunday,October 2: Remaining cloudy,rainy,raw,dank and dreary,with a slight chance for a rain shower continuing and a high temperature only in the middle and upper 60's.Remaining cloudy,but not as cool or as rainy as recent nights,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's, overnight.

Monday,October 3: Turning partly to mostly cloudy and warmer than recent days,with a high temperature of 70-75 degrees.Becoming mostly clear,but remaining mild with a low temperature dropping to around 60 degrees,overnight.

Tuesday,October 4: Turning cloudy and cool,once again,with a high temperature only in the middle and upper 60's.Becoming partly cloudy and cooler than recent nights,with a low temperature dropping to 50-55 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,October 5: Becoming mostly sunny and seasonably mild to warm for very early October and early autumn,with a high temperature of 65-70 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy,but remaining seasonably cool for early autumn,with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 50's, overnight.

Thursday,October 6: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy and a bit warmer than recent days with a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Remaining partly cloudy through the evening followed by increasing cloudiness and a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Friday,October 7: Turning cloudy,rainy and warm with morning rain showers becoming less numerous by the afternoon and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's,once again.Remaining cloudy,rainy and rather warm and muggy for early October and early autumn,with occasional rain possible and a low temperature dropping to 60-65 degrees,overnight.

Saturday,October 8: Remaining cloudy,rainy,seasonably warm and humid for early October and early autumn,with considerable cloudiness and occasional showers possible and a high temperature of 65-70 degrees.Remaining cloudy,rainy,warm and humid for early October and early autumn,with evening rain showers followed by clearing and a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees, overnight.

Sunday,October 9: Turning mostly sunny and cooler than recent days,with a high temperature in the lower and middle 60's.Becoming clear and much cooler/colder than recent nights,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's,overnight.

Monday,October 10: Columbus Day 2016 will be remaining sunny,seasonably mild to warm and pleasant,for a change,with a high temperature in the middle and upper 60's.Remaining clear and cool to chilly for early autumn and early October,with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees, overnight.

Tuesday,October 11: Remaining sunny and seasonably,pleasantly warm for early autumn,with a high temperature in the middle and upper 60's,once again.Remaining clear and cool with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's,overnight.

Wednesday,October 12: Remaining mostly sunny and seasonably,pleasantly warm for early autumn with a high temperature in the middle 60's.Remaining clear and chilly with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,October 13: Remaining seasonably mild to warm for early-to-mid October,with a high temperature of 60-65 degrees.Remaining seasonably cool to chilly for early autumn,with a low temperature of 45-50 degrees,once again,overnight.

Friday,October 14: Remaining mostly sunny,but turning a bit milder/warmer with a high temperature in the middle and upper 60's.Remaining mostly clear and seasonably chilly for mid-October,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's,overnight.

Persistent rain to raise flood risk in part of northeastern US

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

September 29,2016; 8:33PM,EDT

 

 

Persistent downpours will raise the flood risk in part of the mid-Atlantic into Friday, while rain will spread over the rest of the northeastern United States into the weekend.
While the cool and rainy weather into this weekend will have people reaching for jackets and sweaters, some may need to keep an eye on streets and basements for flooding.
Highs will mainly range from the lower 60s F to the middle 70s into this weekend. However, the combination of wind, rain and other conditions will cause AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures to be in the 40s and 50s at times.
Storm to raise flood risk in mid-Atlantic
"The slow-moving storm will bring periodic heavy rains to much of the mid-Atlantic through Friday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Edward Vallee said.

"Since Atlantic moisture will be involved and downpours will linger in some areas, there will be a general 2 to 4 inches of rain over the mid-Atlantic states," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Rich Putnam said.
There is the potential for a narrow zone of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts, Putnam said.
Flooding can occur despite prior dry conditions.
The bulk of the flooding will be restricted to urban areas and along small streams, Valley stated.
These conditions may be widespread from parts of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Gusty thunderstorms with hail will accompany the heavy rain threat in some places. Localized flooding can occur from northern Pennsylvania to eastern North Carolina, with a second pocket in part of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Motorists should anticipate delays during their commutes due to poor visibility and high water during the downpours.
Flash flooding has already closed some roads in parts of Maryland, Michigan and North Carolina.
Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Martinsburg, West Virginia, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, are likely to be affected by urban flooding. Isolated urban flooding has occurred as far to the west as Detroit and as far to the south as Fayetteville, North Carolina. Motorists should never attempt to drive through flooded roadways.
Downpours, fog and a low cloud ceiling can also lead to occasional airline delays from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh and Detroit initially but will also spread to areas from New York City and Boston this weekend.
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In addition to urban and stream flooding, some of the rivers in the area will be on the rise. Since most of these large rivers were very low at the onset of the rain, major flooding is not likely. However, minor to moderate flooding can occur along the upper Potomac and Rappahannock rivers, since much of the rain has focused on these watersheds thus far.
Some rain to reach drought areas of New England
Farther north, rain-free weather will hold on over much of New England for a time.
Much of New England and New York state are in need of soaking rainfall due to long-term abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions.
"Some beneficial rain may enter the southern and western parts of these areas by Friday and the balance during the weekend," Vallee said.

Enough rain may fall on parts of New York state and southern New England to get small streams flowing and put a small amount of water back into ponds, lakes and reservoirs. However, the storm will not drop enough rain to completely alleviate extreme drought.
Following the heavy rain into Friday, rainfall over much of the mid-Atlantic is likely to become more sporadic in nature during this weekend.
There is a chance Matthew may track northward enough to impact the weather in the Eastern states later next week.
Minor issues anticipated in coastal areas
In addition to areas of soaking rain and urban flooding, coastal flooding will be possible from Virginia to eastern Massachusetts at times of high tide. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will extend along the Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey coasts with tides running 2-3 feet above normal through Friday.

Because of the proximity of the new moon, astronomical tides are higher than much of the rest of the month.
Winds blowing onshore will push some Atlantic Ocean water and waves toward the coast, which can cause overwash on some low-lying beach roads and sea and bay water to invade some communities.
Since above-normal tides and rough surf will persist for more than a few hours, minor beach erosion is likely.

Day of German Unity: Weather to improve for Monday celebrations after unsettled weekend

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

September 29,2016; 7:55PM,EDT

 

 

The holiday weekend will start on an unsettled note, but the weather should clear up by Day of German Unity celebrations on Monday.
Festivities across Germany on Saturday and Sunday could face disruptions as a storm system moves through with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
The weekend will not be complete washout, though, as some communities experience wet weather on only one of the two days.

"Showers and thunderstorms will move across the country on Saturday, especially across central Germany where heavier downpours will be possible," AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis said.
The holiday weekend will start on a dry note in southern Bavaria, including Munich, as well as far northern Germany from Bremen to Hamburg to Schwerin.
"Saturday will also still be fairly mild across much of Germany," Travis said.
Southern Bavaria will enjoy the highest temperatures throughout the country as temperatures rise into the lower 20s C (69-72 F).
"Cooler air will move in on Sunday with just a few showers across northern Germany," Travis said. "However, a couple of showers and thunderstorms may be across southeastern Germany, mainly from Munich to the east."
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Oktoberfest attendees will want to be prepared with rain gear when moving between tents and attractions.
Autumn jackets that have been left home this week amid the mild spell will have to be brought back out of the closet. Highs on Sunday will be held about 6 degrees Celsius (10 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit) below Saturday's high of around 22 C (71 F).
Showers will return to far northern Germany. While there can be an isolated thunderstorm, most showers will tend to be brief and light and pose only minor inconveniences to those with outdoor plans.
Rhineland-Pfalz and Baden-Württemberg will see the driest weather across the country on Sunday.
By Day of German Unity, conditions will greatly improve, Travis said.
"Monday will be the driest day of the festival weekend with just a brief shower from Berlin on east," he said.

Umbrellas should be kept handy by those planning to spend a part of Monday at Brandenburg Gate in Berlin. There will be dry stretches of the day with any spotty shower lasting less than 30 minutes.
Monday will otherwise feature a mixture of clouds and sunshine across eastern and central areas with more sunshine toward the western border.
Highs on Monday will range from 14-17 C (57-62 F) in the east, including Berlin, and 15-19 C (59-66 F) across western areas.
Following the warmth from this week, the final day of Oktoberfest in Munich will finally feel like its namesake.
The dry weather will hold into midweek.

Japan to face new typhoon threat as Tropical Storm Chaba strengthens

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

September 29,2016; 7:04PM,EDT

 

 

Tropical Storm Chaba will continue to strengthen and could take aim at mainland Japan and its Ryukyu Islands next week.
Latest indications point toward Chaba tracking farther north than Typhoon Megi, but interests in northern Taiwan and eastern China are urged to continue to stay alert if the future typhoon tracks farther west than anticipated.
"Confidence remains moderate to high that Chaba will curve towards Japan and low for eastern China and northern Taiwan," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.
Residents in South Korea should also stay on alert for potential impacts next week if Chaba tracks far enough to the north before curving into Japan.

Chaba is on track to become a typhoon early this weekend and strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane by the end of Sunday, according to Roys.
After pushing away from Guam, Chaba will be over the open waters of the western Pacific Ocean into this weekend. The danger to shipping interests will gradually become more severe as damaging winds, torrential rain and seas increase around Chaba's center.
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"Chaba should even reach the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane at some point on Monday," Roys said.
Chaba may be bearing down on the Ryukyu Islands at that time.
One scenario for Chaba plows the future typhoon through the Ryukyu Islands around Monday before curving into mainland Japan.

Latest indications put the Okinawa and Amami islands at greatest risk for enduring damaging winds, flooding rain and an inundating surf from Chaba on Monday.
Residents should review what preparations would need to be completed to protect lives and property and heed any evacuation orders that get issued.
Chaba then threatens to curve into Kyushu or the far northern Ryukyu Islands before tracking eastward across southern Japan into midweek.

This is a live loop of Chaba. (NOAA/Satellite)
It is possible that Chaba will curve to the north then northeast fast enough for damaging winds and flooding rain to either bypass or only graze the Ryukyu Islands and mainland Japan.
Only if Chaba is slower to take that turn would it target the southernmost Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan before taking aim at Japan or the Korean Peninsula next week.
The latest typhoon threat comes after Taiwan and eastern China are beginning to cleanup after the devastation from deadly Megi.

World Weather Hot Spot for September 29-30,2016 from accuweather.com

Veaux Port,Saint Lucia: Extremely heavy rain;received a whopping 12.56 inches of rain on Wednesday (September 28,2016)

National Temperature and Rainfall Extremes for September 29,2016 from accuweather.com

As of 10:45PM,EDT/7:45PM,PDT

Daily U.S. Extremes

past 24 hours

	Extreme	Location
High	102°	Death Valley, CA
Low	22°	Hohnholz Ranch, CO
Precip	6.93"	Chincoteague, VA

WeatherWhys for September 29,2016 from accuweather.com

Fog becomes increasingly common during the fall season as the nights get longer and colder. At the same time the humidity can still be high, leading to the formation of early-morning fog.

Tropical Storm Chaba a Typhoon Threat to Okinawa, Japan Next Week

Jon Erdman
Published: September 29,2016
Tropical Storm Chaba, now well west of Guam, will pose a typhoon threat to parts of Japan next week.
According to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Chaba's center is currently over 400 miles west of Guam.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Information, Infrared Satellite Image

Chaba is now experiencing less wind shear than its time near Guam, allowing it to slowly gain strength, and it should become a typhoon by Saturday.
Then it becomes a question of how sharp a recurve – a turn toward the northwest, north, then northeast – Chaba takes this weekend and early next week.
The sharper and sooner the recurve, the less of a threat to Japan. The weaker and/or later a recurve, the more of a Japan threat.
(RECAP: Typhoon Malakas)

Forecast Path: Chaba

For now, the forecast path is quite uncertain, something not unusual with a forecast several days out.
If it doesn't recurve fast enough, it may pose a threat to Okinawa in the late Sunday/Monday timeframe and southern Japan Tuesday into Wednesday.
(FORECASTS: Kadena AB | Tokyo)
Furthermore, there's a chance, as is frequently the case, for Chaba to undergo a period of rapid intensification before potentially threatening parts of Japan.
(MORE: Typhoon Alley: The Planet's Most Intense Tropical Cyclones)
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this system.
MORE: Typhoon Megi Photos

Tropical Storm Roslyn (RECAP)

September 29,2016

Historical track of Tropical Storm Roslyn, September 25-29, 2016.

Tropical Storm Roslyn became the 17th named storm of the 2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season on September 26, 2016.
Roslyn never impacted land, but instead meandered around the eastern North Pacific before entering cooler waters off the coast of Mexico and an area where slightly higher wind shear was prevalent.
(MORE:  Hurricane Central)
MORE: Images of Hurricane Eyes