By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
November 1,2013; 9:29PM,EDT
Much
of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions
spanning December, January and February. Areas from the Mediterranean
Sea to the Balkans will be much less stormy, when compared to last
winter, but ample snow is forecast for the mountain venues of the XXII
Olympic Winter Games.
The storm track affecting part of Europe during late October into early November will shift.
According to AccuWeather Europe Weather Expert Alan Reppert, "The
main storm track will set up farther to the north and east than what we
typically see during most of the winter and will have a significant
effect on temperatures and precipitation."
JUMP TO:
Cold Not Likely to Persist|
Snowfall to Be Lean in Central and Southern Areas |
Early Outlook for 22nd Winter Olympics |
Wildcard
Cold Not Likely to Persist
With most storms tracking to the north this winter, areas from the
United Kingdom and France to Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Italy are
likely to experience temperatures averaging near to above normal.
From Poland to Romania, the rather frequent storms will displace the cold air and generally prevent it from lasting very long.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com United Kingdom Forecast
AccuWeather.com Germany Forecast
AccuWeather.com France Forecast
For Spain, Portugal and western France, the coldest part of the winter, relative to normal will be the first part.
"Chilly waters off the coasts of Portugal, northern Spain and western
France will result in a cool December, but as the waters trend toward
average later in the season, so will the Iberian Peninsula trend
warmer," Reppert said.
Compared to last winter, the number of rain and mountain snowstorms
from Italy to Greece and the Balkans will be lower. Storms in general in
the region will less intense.
Snowfall Will Be Lean in Central and Southern Areas
The northeastward skewed storm track will tend to limit snowfall
throughout much of Europe. The elevation at which snow falls will
generally become higher than average from the Pyrenees to the Alps and
Carpathian Mountains as warmer air moves in.
"Some ski resorts in the Alps could struggle to get enough snow over
the winter, especially those at lower elevations or at the bases of the
larger resorts," Reppert said.
Unsettled weather is most likely to occur during the beginning and
end of the winter from central France to Germany and much of Poland,
with a dry mid-season.
The wettest part of the winter for the United Kingdom and Ireland is likely to be later in January and February.
"Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow
should be no more than average for the British Isles," Reppert stated.
Backdropped by Tower Bridge, two man runs along a snow covered embankment in London Friday, Jan. 18, 2013. (AP Photo/Sang Tan)
Areas most likely to have near- to above-average snowfall will reach from Scandinavia to part of western Russia.
"The coldest part of the winter relative to normal for northeastern
Europe, including western Russia is likely to be December into early
January, which should contribute to more typical snowfall for the
region, relative to other areas," Reppert said.
Expected (Dec. Through Feb.) Snowfall for a Few Cities
|
City
|
Amount (Inches)
|
|---|
|
Moscow
|
40-50
|
|
Berlin
|
3-6
|
|
London
|
1-2
|
|
Paris
|
1-2
|
|
Rome
|
0
|
Early Outlook for Winter Olympics
In much of southwestern Russia, including the Caucasus Mountains, snowfall is likely to be a little shy of average.
The city of Sochi, Russia, is the host city of the XXII Winter
Olympics, scheduled for Feb. 7 to 23, 2014. Sochi is located on the
northeastern shores of the Black Sea with the Caucasus Range to its back
to the northeast.
In
this Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013, file photo Olympic stadiums are seen in
the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia. The Black Sea resort has been
transformed by preparations for the Olympics. (AP Photo/Artur Lebedev,
file)
According to AccuWeather World Weather Expert Jim Andrews, "The
winter climate is a little similar to the coastal areas and Cascade
Range of the Pacific Northwest in the United States."
Despite the presence of palm trees in the city, temperatures can dip
to freezing. In terms of precipitation, it can also snow a bit once in a
while at the resort city.
Skiing, sledding and boarding events for the games will take place at
the Krasnaya Polyana Mountains, within the Caucasus Range. Between 40
and 50 inches of snow is forecast to fall this winter near the base of
the mountains, with much heavier snow at intermediate and high
elevations. The majority of the snow for the season should have already
fallen on the mountains by the time the games begin.
"Snowfall in the nearby Caucasus Range varies greatly and increases
with elevation, so even in a winter season where slightly below average
snow is forecast, there should be plenty [of snow] on the slopes,"
Andrews said.
Wildcard
There is the chance of a cold wave invading western and northern Europe late in the winter.
Such an event might be tied in with sudden warming of a high altitude
layer of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere. Temperatures in the
stratosphere are a reverse, or mirror-effect, of the lower atmosphere.
According to AccuWeather Long Range Weather Expert Paul Pastelok,
"Sudden stratospheric warming events cannot be predicted in advance, but
when they do occur, a week to ten days later, they signal a southward
release of cold air in the lower part of the atmosphere."
When a stratospheric warming event occurs, there is the challenge of
figuring out where the compensating main thrust of cold air will go. It
is likely to bring an arctic outbreak to part of one or two continents:
North America, Europe or Asia, but never throughout all three.
AccuWeather Meteorologists Jason Nicholls and Eric Wanenchak contributed content to this story.
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