4 Things to Watch in This Week's Weather

Brian Donegan
Published: May 30,2017
The nation's weather this week will feature more stubborn rain and thunderstorms in a few rain-weary areas, along with spreading heat and the kickoff of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Let's go in depth on the four things to watch as May comes to a close and June kicks off this week.

1. Southern Soaking

Similar to last week, showers and thunderstorms will target portions of the South for much of this week. A few of the storms may become severe, but an outbreak of severe weather is currently unexpected.
The most persistent and heaviest downpours will likely set up over parts of Texas and Louisiana, though areas as far east as Georgia could also see some occasional thunderstorms.
(MAPS: 7-Day Forecast Highs and Weather)

South Outlook

A broad swath of 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected from Texas to southwestern Alabama through Thursday, but a few places may see greater than 3 inches. The best chance of 3-plus-inch rainfall totals will be in south-central and southeast Texas and in parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Flash flooding will become an increasing possibility in this zone, particularly where thunderstorm clusters stall or move too slowly over any one area.

2. Northeast: Still Wet

The Northeast will be unsettled for much of the week ahead as multiple disturbances push through the region.
(MORE: Eastern May Rain Fatigue; Any Break Ahead in June?)
The next disturbance will bring another round of showers and storms Tuesday as many people head back to work and school after the long weekend.
Yet another disturbance will push through the Northeast on Wednesday, continuing the threat for scattered showers or a thunderstorm.

Northeast Outlook

Thursday should be dry across the region before the next cold front arrives Friday with more showers and storms. This weekend, the best chance of dry weather will be generally in northern New York and New England as the frontal system may stall out, keeping a risk for showers and storms into the weekend in towards the mid-Atlantic states.
(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Rain Forecast)

3. Heat Spreads

Well-above-average warmth will spread east this week from the Northwest and Great Basin to the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
The Pacific Northwest will cool down Tuesday, but the very warm temperatures will continue in the interior Northwest and Great Basin, expanding into the northern Rockies. Temperatures are expected to be above average by 10 to 20 degrees in these areas Tuesday, indicating highs mainly in the 80s with a few lower 90s possible.
(MORE: 10-Day Forecast High/Low Temperatures)

Forecast Highs

The Great Basin and northern Rockies will continue to be well above average Wednesday with most locations seeing highs in the 80s.
Warmth will expand into the northern Plains on Thursday as temperatures reach levels 10 to 20 degrees above average. This means many areas will experience highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Some 90s are likely in parts of the northern High Plains.
Lows will generally be 5 to 15 degrees above average as the warmth engulfs these regions, which indicates overnight temperatures mainly in the 50s.

4. Hurricane Season Begins

The official Atlantic hurricane season begins this Thursday, June 1, and runs through Nov. 30.
Occasionally, storms can form outside those months as happened this year with Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed in April. This also occurred last season with January's Hurricane Alex and late May's Tropical Storm Bonnie.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be more active than historical averages with regards to the number of named storms and hurricanes, according to forecasts released by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Colorado State University and NOAA.
(MORE: Above-Average 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected)

Number of Atlantic basin named storms (those that attain at least tropical storm strength), hurricanes and hurricanes of Cat. 3 intensity forecast by The Weather Company, an IBM business, Colorado State University and NOAA, compared to 30-year average.

The 30-year historical average (1981-2010) for the Atlantic basin is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

MORE: Severe Weather - May 27, 2017

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.