Sarika (Karen) Quickly Intensifying Ahead of Philippines Landfall Saturday, Then Southern China or Vietnam Next Week

Jon Erdman
Published: October 14,2016
Sarika, the latest typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean, will arrive in the Philippines Saturday, then head into the South China Sea for a second landfall next week.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Right now, Sarika — given the name "Karen" by the Phillipine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) — is quickly gaining steam less than two hundred miles east of the Philippine capital, Manila.

Current Storm Information, Infrared Satellite Image

Sarika/Karen will be steered west-northwest by a ribbon of high pressure aloft to its north and is expected to be a typhoon during the weekend landfall in Luzon Saturday into Sunday.
(MORE: Typhoon Alley - Where the Planet's Most Intense Tropical Cyclones Most Often Happen)

Forecast Path: Sarika/Karen

Along with the threat of storm surge flooding and damaging winds, life-threatening flooding and landslides will be a major threat.
Parts of the northern and perhaps central Philippines are likely to see over 10 inches of total rainfall. Heavy rainbands may occur well ahead of and after passage of Sarika/Karen.
(FORECAST: Manila)

Forecast Rainfall: Sarika/Karen

After its interaction with the Philippines, that same upper-level ribbon of high pressure aloft will steer Sarika into the South China Sea next week.
(INTERACTIVE: Wundermap Forecast Path)
This may bring Sarika toward China's Hainan Island, then Vietnam later Tuesday into Wednesday.
The most likely track of Sarika is sufficiently south of Hong Kong to avoid any direct impacts.
(MORE: Countries Most Hit By Tropical Cyclones)
Interestingly, the typically typhoon-hit northern Philippines have seen only one typhoon so far in 2016, Typhoon Nida.

Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this typhoon threat.

MORE: Typhoon Megi Hits Taiwan, China (PHOTOS)