Invest 99L, a Disturbance East of the Bahamas, Could Develop Later This Week

October 19,2016
An area of disturbed weather, Invest 99L, continues to persist east of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Conditions could become more favorable for development and there is a good chance it will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days.
(MORE: What is an Invest? | Hurricane Central)
As of Wednesday evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had given the area of disturbed weather a 60 percent chance of development during the next five days.

The showers and thunderstorms flaring up in Invest 99L are associated with a non-tropical low pressure system that has formed.

Infrared Satellite Image

Upper-level winds are currently much too strong for any significant development of this system right now.
By later this week, wind shear could relax enough that the system may gain more tropical characteristics. This would allow a tropical or subtropical cyclone to potentially develop.
A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft may investigate Invest 99L Thursday afternoon, if needed.
(MORE: What is a Subtropical Cyclone?)
The next named storm in the Atlantic basin would be "Otto."

Wind Shear Analysis

Jet Stream Pattern Should Keep System Off U.S. East Coast

Given Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still picking up the pieces from Hurricane Matthew, any system in the western Atlantic Ocean is probably cause for concern.
However, Invest 99L is not expected to be a direct threat to the East Coast.
The low-pressure center is expected to generally move toward the north in the western Atlantic Ocean.
First, it will continue east-northeast thanks to the current upper-level winds. Then, it may turn back west for a time as high-pressure aloft temporarily builds north of it. Finally, it will be accelerated to the northeast in response to a southward dip in the jet stream sweeping into the eastern United States later this week.
Most of the forecast guidance suggests the system will remain well off the East Coast, eventually merging with a cold front south of the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
This does not appear to be a serious threat to Bermuda, as was Nicole last week. Some increase in showers and gusty winds is expected possibly as soon as Thursday.
We will continue to monitor for any potential changes to the track of this potential system, however.

While not a direct U.S. threat, this system, if it develops further, may eventually generate some higher surf along the East Coast late this week.
Check back for updates the next few days on this system.

PHOTOS: Hurricane Matthew's U.S. Impacts