Hurricane Matthew's U.S. Impacts: What We Know Right Now

October 4,2016

Confidence is growing that Hurricane Matthew will significantly impact the southeastern United States coastline late this week into the weekend.
As illustrated by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) projected path map, and also explained below, the severity of any direct impacts will depend on how close the center of Matthew moves near the southeastern states. All interests from Florida to coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should continue to monitor the forecast closely and make necessary preparations for a hurricane.
(MORE: Full Matthew Forecast)
Here is the latest on what we know about Matthew right now in terms of U.S. impacts.

1. Timing For Matthew

Projected Path

As far as timing for any potential impacts along the Southeast coast, here is a general overview. The NHC forecast calls for Matthew to be a strong hurricane during this timeframe.
Florida Peninsula (particularly east): Thursday-Friday, possibly lingering into early Saturday in northeast Florida.
Southeast Georgia: Friday-Saturday.
Carolinas: Later Friday-Saturday, possibly continuing in eastern North Carolina into early Sunday.
(MORE: Interactive Storm Tracker)

2. Battering Waves, Coastal Flooding, Beach Erosion Likely

No matter how close the center of Matthew passes in relation to the Southeast coast, we expect major marine impacts.
Matthew will generate large, battering waves along the entire coastline Thursday into the weekend. Mariners and beachgoers are encouraged to stay out of the water given this danger.

Forecast Waves From Matthew

Significant coastal flooding is also likely along the path of Matthew from Florida into the Carolinas. The magnitude of any inundation will be dictated by the exact path Matthew takes.
Furthermore, the threat for major, damaging storm surge flooding is in play should the center of Matthew make landfall along the Southeast coast. Locations from Florida's east coast to the coastal Carolinas are at risk for this possibility, though this is highly uncertain.
Of course, beach erosion is a given with all those factors above playing out.
If you live along the immediate coast, stay informed and have a plan to evacuate should you be instructed to do so.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

3. Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Likely, Hurricane-Force Winds Possible

The potential for tropical storm-force winds (39 mph+) or hurricane-force winds (74+ mph) is in play along the entire Southeast coast.
How strong those winds are in any one location will depend on where the center of Matthew tracks in relation to the Southeast coast.
Since Monday, forecast guidance has trended towards a track closer to the coast, which increases the probability of strong, damaging winds in some areas.
Right now, it appears at least tropical storm-force winds are a good bet from most of Florida's East Coast to at least North Carolina's Outer Banks.
(FORECAST: Charleston | Jacksonville | Miami | Wilmington)

Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities

Hurricane-force winds are also highly possible throughout that stretch of the coast. This would particularly be the case if Matthew's eyewall grinds along the Southeast coast or even makes landfall, again anywhere from Florida's east coast to coastal Georgia and the Carolinas.
The National Hurricane Center has at least low probabilities of hurricane-force winds at this time on the Southeast coast. Keep in mind, however, that those probabilities will likely rise as forecast confidence increases and the timing of those potential wind impacts draws closer.
If hurricane-force winds do materialize, structural wind damage will be possible along with tree damage and widespread power outages.

4. Rainfall Flooding, Tornadoes

Two other threats we will have to watch for from Matthew is the potential for rainfall flooding and tornadoes.
Once again, Matthews track in relation to the U.S. coast will dictate the magnitude of any heavy rainfall impacts, possibly resulting in flooding.
In areas where coastal flooding occurs, the heavy rainfall could make flooding worse or prevent water from receding.
A tornado threat could also develop on the Southeast coast, particularly if Matthew makes landfall.

5. Will the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States See Matthew...Or Stall Off Southeast Coast?

Matthew may accelerate northeast this weekend ahead of an incoming southward dip in the jet stream and its associated cold front.
While, again, the exact path will determine impacts, at least a chance of tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain is in play up the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast, eventually into Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada.
However, an alternative outcome suggested in some recent forecast guidance is that Matthew could instead stall off the Southeast coast and weaken. This would prevent any impacts from going north of the southeastern states.

Cold front and associated jet stream dip will interact with Matthew this weekend.