Hurricane Matthew's eyewall continues to brush parts of Georgia's southeast coast with high winds and major storm surge flooding and will spread those impacts, in addition to potentially serious rainfall flooding, into Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina through at least Saturday night.
(MORE: WATCH OUR CONTINUOUS LIVE COVERAGE ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL)
Hurricane warnings are in effect north of the Flagler/Volusia county line in Florida to Surf City, North Carolina. This includes locations such as Jacksonville, Florida, Savannah, Georgia, Charleston, South Carolina, and Wilmington, North Carolina.
(MORE: Interactive Matthew Tracker Page)
Current Watches/Warnings
A tropical storm warning has been hoisted north of there to include the Outer Banks of North Carolina, as well as Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.
All coastal warnings have been discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia county line in Florida.
Latest Radar, Warnings
Storm surge flooding has already occurred along the northeast Florida coast, including in the Daytona Beach, St. Augustine and Jacksonville Beach areas, and has already spread as far north as South Carolina during Friday afternoon's high tide.
During Friday evening's low tide, tides at Charleston Harbor were running about 3 feet higher than normal, which means life-threatening flooding is imminent during high tide at 12:57 a.m. Saturday.
A dangerous night is also ahead for Savannah, Georgia, as an 80+ year-old storm surge record is in jeopardy. The Weather Channel hurricane specialist Michael Lowry is afraid the worst land impacts from Matthew will occur with early Saturday's high tide in Savannah, due to it occurring at night with a lot of the city without power.
(MORE: Hurricane Central | Interactive Storm Tracker Map)
Isolated tornadoes are also possible. A tornado watch is in effect for parts of southeast Georgia and coastal South Carolina until 12 a.m. EDT. This watch area includes Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina.
Latest Status and Storm Reports
Satellite and radar imagery show the eye of Matthew marching northward roughly paralleling the northeast Florida coast and southeast Georgia coast.Matthew's tropical storm-force wind field (at least 39 mph sustained winds) extends up to 185 miles from the center, and hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 miles from the center.
The center of Matthew remained within 25-40 miles of the northeast Florida coast much of Friday, but has been close enough to bring hurricane-force wind gusts to some coastal areas.
Current Storm Status
Early Friday afternoon, storm surge flooding affected the St. Augustine area, including major flooding on Anastasia Island where water was reported to be 2.5 feet above ground level. To the south in nearby Flagler Beach, Florida, parts of A1A were washed out by the storm surge.
Storm surge was also seen pushing ashore in parts of Jacksonville Beach and Fernandina Beach.
Friday
evening, water levels peaked around 7 feet above normal at Fernandina
Beach, Florida, and about 5 feet above normal at Ft. Pulaski, Georgia,
according to NOAA/National Ocean Service data. The St. Johns River in
northeast Florida reached its highest level on record at Shands Bridge,
along with 3 to 4.3 feet of storm surge inundation reported at the Racy
Point, Red Bay Point and I-295 Bridge tide gauges.Farther south, the storm surge peaked at roughly 4 feet at Trident Pier, near Cape Canaveral early Friday.
Wind Reports
Here are some of the top wind gust reports from Matthew, so far.
Cape Canaveral, Florida: 107 mph
Daytona Beach, Florida: 91 mph
Jacksonville Area: 87 mph
South Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida: 84 mph
Melbourne, Florida: 70 mph
Folly Beach, South Carolina: 68 mph
Tybee Island, Georgia: 64 mph
Hilton Head, South Carolina: 63 mph
Orlando Area: Gusts over 60 mph reported
Multiple roofs were damaged along the oceanfront in Flagler Beach.
Current Wind Speed and Gusts
Bands of locally heavy rain have spread over 600 miles north of Matthew, an ominous sign for the rainfall flood potential, though no reports of flash flooding have yet been received.
Southeast Regional Radar/Alerts
Here are some of the totals from Matthew 8 a.m. Thursday - 8 p.m. Friday (EDT):
McIntosh, Georgia: 10.83 inches
Orlando, Florida (Sanford): 7.93 inches
Jacksonville, Florida: 6.64 inches
Savannah, Georgia: 4.02 inches
Charleston, South Carolina: 1.00 inches
Estimated Storm-Total Rainfall, So Far
Timing For Matthew
Here is the approximate timing of the worst wind and surge impacts, coinciding with the nearest passage of the eyewall of Matthew. (Note that Matthew's eye may never make landfall, but its eyewall, containing the hurricane's strongest winds, may do so.)- Northeastern Florida: Into early Saturday morning
- Georgia coast: Through Saturday morning
- South Carolina: Saturday through Saturday evening
- North Carolina (mainly south): Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
Projected Path and Intensity
Note that there may be coastal flooding occurring well ahead of the closest approach of Matthew in Georgia and parts of the Carolinas.
Small, subtle changes in the path of the eyewall, sometimes not resolvable until hours before the passage, will make a large difference on wind impact.
(MORE: When Hurricanes Parallel the Coast Instead of Making Landfall)
Storm Surge, Battering Waves, Beach Erosion Dangers
Major, damaging storm surge flooding is expected as Matthew curls its way northward along the Southeast coast. If you live along the immediate coast and are told to evacuate, please do so.Here is how high the water could reach during this life-threatening inundation if the peak surge coincides with high tide, according to the National Hurricane Center:
- Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina: 6 to 9 feet above ground level
- Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina: 5 to 7 feet above ground level
- Flagler/Volusia county line in Florida to Flagler Beach, Florida: 4 to 6 feet above ground level
- Cape Fear, North Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina (including Albemarle, Pamlico Sounds): 2 to 4 feet above ground level
The 6- to 9-foot above ground level forecast storm surge, mentioned above, is comparable to what New Jersey and New York experienced during Superstorm Sandy in Oct. 2012. The highest surge values there were 4 to 9 feet above ground level.
NWS Charleston warned surge levels along the South Carolina or Georgia coast could be the worst seen since 1989's Hurricane Hugo in some locations.
Storm Surge Inundation Forecast
Here are times of the next three high and low tides for several locations that could see significant storm surge inundation.
| Jacksonville Beach, Florida | 1:29 a.m. Sat - high | 7:29 a.m. Sat - low | 1:59 p.m. Sat - high |
| St. Simons Island, Georgia | 1:28 a.m. Sat - high | 7:28 a.m. Sat - low | 1:50 p.m. Sat - high |
| Hilton Head Island, South Carolina | 1:56 a.m. Sat - high | 7:46 a.m. Sat - low | 2:28 p.m. Sat - high |
| Charleston, South Carolina | 12:57 a.m. Sat - high | 7:04 a.m. Sat - low | 1:39 p.m. Sat - high |
| Myrtle Beach, South Carolina | 12:40 a.m. Sat - high | 6:43 a.m. Sat - low | 1:24 p.m. Sat - high |
Tides at
Fort Pulaski, GA running ~5 ft higher than normal AT LOW TIDE!!
Life-threatening flooding during high tide around 1 AM!! #gawx
Current Wave Heights From Matthew
Damaging Hurricane-Force Winds Possible
Hourly Wind Gust Forecast
The National Hurricane Center put the crux of this challenge best:
However, if the eyewall happens to wobble just enough closer to shore, more destructive winds over 80 mph may lead to more structural damage and more widespread power outages in these areas.
The potential for tropical storm-force winds (39-plus mph) will encompass a larger part of Florida as well as southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas.
(MORE: Impact Differences When a Hurricane Parallels the Coast Instead of Making Landfall)
Even tropical storm-force winds could down trees or tree limbs and knock out power.
Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities
Rainfall Flooding, Tornadoes
Over a foot of total rain may fall over parts of the coastal plain of the Carolinas. A broad swath of 5 inches or more will occur from northeast Florida to eastern North Carolina.Rainfall Forecast
This combination is expected to produce major flooding in places like Charleston, South Carolina, where flooding there could be comparable to what was seen in the city during the October 2015 event, according to the National Weather Service.
An isolated tornado threat could also develop on the Southeast coast, as well, if any discrete cells form in outer rainbands of Matthew.
Matthew's Strange Future Next Week
You may have noticed the forecast track has changed radically for areas from North Carolina northward.Matthew will not get "picked up" by a southward dip in the jet stream forecast to push into the Northeast U.S. this weekend.
Instead, Matthew is expected to curl southeast, then south away from the coastal Carolinas beginning later Sunday.
Matthew is then expected to meander off the Southeast coast or near the Bahamas into next week, but details on where it may eventually go, including perhaps a second strike as a weaker system in the Bahamas or Florida, are uncertain at this time.
(MORE: Matthew May Look Back Toward Florida, Bahamas for Second Hit)
Caribbean and Bahamas Storm Reports, Recap
George F.L. Charles Airport on St. Lucia picked up 9.21 inches of rain Wednesday. On the south side of the island, Hewanorra Int'l Airport picked up 13.19 inches of rain in just 12 hours from 8 p.m. Wednesday through 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the Antigua Met Service.(MORE: Category 5 Hurricanes Prior to Matthew)
Hurricane Matthew became the fifth hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season early Thursday afternoon.
According to Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Matthew became the lowest latitude Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record (beating the old record set by Ivan in 2004).
Some outer rainbands triggered flash flooding in Jamaica Sunday, hundreds of miles away from the center of Matthew.
Interestingly Sunday night, a fortunately-placed NOAA buoy sampled Matthew's eye, providing valuable information for meteorologists.
(MORE: Devastation in Haiti)
Hurricane Matthew made a second landfall near Juaco, Cuba, around 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday evening. October 4. An unconfirmed wind gusts to 155 mph was reported in the town of Baracoa, Cuba, in Matthew's eyewall.
After passing Cuba, Matthew passed through the Bahamas.
Wednesday night, a 119 mph sustained wind was clocked at Exuma International Airport. Sustained winds over 100 mph were also clocked at George Town, also on Exuma.
Winds gusted to 85 mph in Nassau Thursday.
Remarkable observation tonight from GGT Airport as #Matthew rakes the Bahamas
In the 9 p.m. hour on October 6, Grand Bahama reported a sustained wind of 64 mph.
Early Thursday evening, Freeport in the northwest Bahamas reported sustained winds of 100 mph with gusts up to 121 mph as the northern eyewall lashed the area.
In the Bahamas, Settlement Point reported sustained winds of 79 mph and gusts as high as 105 mph.
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