Extremely Dangerous Matthew Beginning to Turn Toward Jamaica, Haiti; Hurricane Warnings Issued

October 1,2016
Hurricane Matthew has begun a turn to the north as a strong and extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.
The storm poses a very dangerous threat to Jamaica, parts of Hispañola, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas early next week. Its potential U.S. impact later next week still remains unclear. Impacts are possible in Florida during the middle of next week.
Major Hurricane Matthew strengthened to a rare Category 5 late Friday evening. Matthew is the first Category 5 hurricane since Hurricane Felix in 2007.
Hurricane Matthew became the fifth hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season early Thursday afternoon.
According to Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Matthew became the lowest latitude Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record (beating the old record set by Ivan in 2004).
(MORE: At Least 1 Dead in Colombia As Deadly Matthew Heads Towards Jamaica, Cuba)
Matthew was located around 360 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti as of early Saturday Evening.

Current Storm Status

A Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance mission Saturday afternoon measured winds of 155 mph in Matthew's eyewall at a height of 7,000 feet, and winds of 150 mph at the surface.
This indicates a short term strengthening trend is occurring, and could continue.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
A hurricane warning has been issued for Jamaica and coastal areas of Haiti. Winds of 75 mph or greater are likely with torential rainfall occuring on Monday, and tropical storm force winds may begin late Sunday. Preparations in these areas need to be completed as soon as possible.
A hurricane watch has been issued for Haiti's northern coast and for the eastern half of Cuba. Winds of 75 mph or greater are possible in these areas by Monday night or Tuesday morning, and preparations may become difficult by early Monday.

Current Watches/Warnings

Impacts to land have faded as Matthew has moved away away from Colombia, but will begin to escalate again on Sunday.
Here are the current winds:

Current Wind Speed and Gusts

Trips through the Caribbean are strongly ill-advised.

The 'Caribbean Right Turn'

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next day or so. Matthew went through an "eyewall replacement cycle," which occurs when strong bands of wind and rain replace the eyewall of a hurricane. This is common in extremely powerful hurricanes of this stature.
Matthew weakened a bit during the late morning hours, but has restrengthened over the past several hours.
Some moderate shear continues to exist surrounding Matthew, and this is probably having some effect on the hurricane.
(MORE: Just Because It's Fall Doesn't Mean We Shouldn't Pay Attention to the Tropics)
Matthew has begun to make a long-anticipated northwestward or northward turn in the Caribbean Sea, as the system reaches the southwestern edge of the Bermuda high.
Beyond that, uncertainty is still considerable on the critical details of this system.
The critical details regarding exactly how sharp this turn ends up being, and what Matthew's intensity is will dictate the exact impacts for Jamaica, Hispañola, and eastern or central Cuba.
Phases of rapid intensification like the one experienced by Matthew on Thursday and Friday only hamper efforts to gain a better handle on the forecast, but the forecast is becoming more clear.
(MORE: Facts/Myths About the Hurricane Cones of Uncertainty)
Impacts could begin in Jamaica and Hispañola (particularly Haiti) as soon as Sunday night, and in eastern Cuba as soon as Monday.
Rainfall amounts in Haiti, Jamaica, and parts of eastern Cuba could get near 15 inches. Isolated amounts of up to 25 inches in the mountainous regions of Jamaica and Haiti are possible, and life threatening flash floods and mudslides may be a result. In Haiti in particular, heavy rainfall could be catastrophic.

Forecast Rainfall

In addition, there is uncertainty regarding Matthew's intensity as it nears those locations. Matthew may be stronger or weaker than the current forecast due to the potential fluctuations in intensity.

Projected Path and Intensity

Beyond that, Matthew is likely to begin impacting parts of the central or southeastern Bahamas, or even the Florida East Coast by Tuesday and Wednesday.
(FLASHBACK: Hurricane Joaquin 2015)

U.S. Threat?

Beyond that, it is still too soon to determine which parts of the U.S. may be in danger next week, however there may be some impacts to south Florida by mid-week. There is a large amount of uncertainty going into next week.
We will know a lot more about the future track of Matthew after the hurricane completes the northward turn by late Saturday or early Sunday.
(MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts For the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted)
For now, ensemble forecast guidance has lessened the threat of a Gulf of Mexico track, but we cannot rule out an East Coast threat later next week.
Even if Matthew stays sufficiently off the East Coast, a threat of dangerous swells, coastal flooding, and beach erosion is likely to be in play along parts of the Eastern Seaboard.
Dr. Klotzbach noted 60 percent of landfalling U.S. hurricanes from September 27 and beyond since 1900 have occurred in Florida. However, while lower probability, there have been landfalls this late in the season as far west as the Texas Gulf Coast.

Typical October named storm origin locations and tracks.

For now, all interests in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and U.S. East Coast including Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Matthew. Preparations in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas should be underway. 
Check back with us frequently at weather.com for any important forecast updates.

Storm Reports

George F.L. Charles Airport on St. Lucia picked up 9.21 inches of rain Wednesday. On the south side of the island, Hewanorra Int'l Airport picked up 13.19 inches of rain in just 12 hours from 8 p.m. Wednesday through 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the Antigua Met Service.

A wind gust to 89 mph was reported in St. Pierre, Martinique, Wednesday evening. Some stations are elevated at 50 to 100 feet. Sustained winds of 39 mph were reported on the island of Barbados.

Now is a good time to make sure you're prepared before the storm. Are you #HurricaneStrong?
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