Tropical Storm Colin Is Approaching Florida, Tropical Storm Warnings Issued

June 6,2016
Tropical Storm Colin will continue to bring heavy rain and possible flooding to parts of Florida and the Southeast through Monday night and into Tuesday. In addition, the storm could spawn a few tornadoes and cause some coastal flooding.
(INTERACTIVE TRACKER: Tropical Storm Colin)
Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) knocked down trees and power lines in the Tampa area on Monday morning. A wind gust to 57 mph was clocked at Bradenton Beach. Heavy rain has been reported near Tallahassee where 6.35 inches of rain had fallen through noon Monday.
(MORE: Latest Colin Impacts)
Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

• Tropical Storm Colin is located about 35 miles south-southeast of Apalachicola, Florida, or about 95 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, and is moving to the northeast at 23 mph as of 5 p.m. EDT Monday.
• Maximum sustained winds are around 50 mph as of Monday evening and some strengthening is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.
• Tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood, as well as portions of the Atlantic Coast from Oregon Inlet (North Carolina) to Sebastian Inlet (Florida).
• Heavy rain will be the main threat with 3 to 5 inches likely across portions of Florida, southeastern Georgia and the coastal Carolinas with locally up to 8 inches possible.
• Tropical storm force winds will continue to spread from portions of Florida to the Southeast coast through Monday night and into Tuesday.
• High surf and coastal flooding are also possible Monday afternoon and evening. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible from Indian Pass to Tampa Bay and from 1 to 2 feet from Tampa Bay to Florida Bay.

(MORE: Hurricane Season Outlook | Hurricane Season Q & A | Debunking Hurricane Myths)

Current Storm Status

Tropical Storm Colin is located over the northeast Gulf of Mexico as of Monday evening and is expected to track to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. Colin is expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida later Monday evening. This system is then expected to be somewhere near or off the coast of the Carolinas by later Tuesday.
This north-northeastward movement is due to an upper-level high pressure centered to the east from the Bahamas to the central Caribbean Sea and broad low pressure aloft centered over South Texas.
(MORE: 8 Things to Know About the Hurricane Season)

Projected Path

Tropical storm warnings have been posted for portions of the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast of Florida, including the Tampa, Apalachicola and Jacksonville areas and extend northward past Charleston, South Carolina. Tropical storm warnings extend inland across portions of northern Florida.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

Current Satellite, Surface Winds

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: Florida's Record-Setting Hurricane Drought)
It will not have much time to strengthen appreciably, and Colin remains poorly organized, with most of the convection on its east side. However, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found that maximum sustained winds had increased to 50 mph early Monday. Some slight strengthening is also possible on Tuesday when Colin is near the Southeast coast.
Areas of heavy rain continue to spread across Florida and the Southeast coast well ahead of Tropical Storm Colin's circulation center. This may result in flash flooding in some locations.

Rainfall Outlook Through Tuesday

(MORE: Florida's 'Wet Season' Is Here)
Coastal flooding is also expected along Florida's vulnerable Gulf Coast, mainly to the northeast, east and southeast of the center.
Gusty winds and even a few tornadoes are also possible as the system passes through late Monday into early Tuesday. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph are likely, with gusts up to 60 mph.
(FORECAST: Tampa | Miami | Fort Myers | Orlando | Daytona Beach | Key West | Panama City)
Incidentally, this part of the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean is a common area for June tropical cyclone development.

This map shows the typical formation areas and tracks for named storms in June.

National Hurricane Center director Dr. Rick Knabb noted a tropical storm has formed in the Gulf of Mexico five of the previous six years.
Interestingly, three recent examples of June Gulf of Mexico tropical storms affecting Florida all had the same, lopsided appearance this potential "Colin" may possess.

June Atlantic "C" Storms Are Rare

This hurricane season has already gotten off to a weird start.
Hurricane Alex became only the second hurricane on record to form in the month of January, sweeping through The Azores as a tropical storm.
Over the Memorial Day weekend, Tropical Storm Bonnie brought flooding rainfall to parts of the Carolinas and Georgia, then had a "second wind" off the Outer Banks of North Carolina the following week.
Getting to the "C" storm in the Atlantic name list in June is exceedingly rare and Colin was named Sunday evening, setting a new record for the earliest third storm in the Atlantic basin.
Dating to the 1950s, when tropical cyclone name lists were first enacted, there have only been two other June Atlantic "C" storms:

• Hurricane Chris (first a "subtropical storm" on June 18, 2012)
• Tropical Storm Candy (briefly a tropical storm on June 23, 1968)

Colorado State University tropical meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach says prior to naming storms, a June 12, 1887 tropical storm was the earliest in the entire period of record dating to 1851. However, Klotzbach notes that storms may have been missed in the historical record prior to the deployment of satellites in the 1960s.
Interestingly, in the record-setting 2005 hurricane season, Hurricane Cindy first became a tropical storm on July 5. That said, early-season (or pre-season) tropical cyclone activity has little bearing on the number or intensity of storms for the season as a whole.
Check back frequently for the latest on this potential Gulf of Mexico system.
(MORE: Are You #HurricaneStrong?)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7.