Saturday, June 4, 2016

Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Threat Increases Through Sunday In The East

Tom Moore
Published: June 4,2016

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes may become numerous across much of the East through Sunday.
Disturnances along two jet streams will be influencing the weather across the U.S.
Severe Setup
One weather system will move from the great lakes and Ohio valley to the Eastern Seaboard by late Sunday . This willcreate lifting of warm, moist air and that will produce showers and thunderstorms..
The result will be the progression of thunderstorms eastward. Some thunderstorms will turn severe and they will produce large hail and damaging winds.
The meteorological ingredients for severe weather Sunday in the East.
The overall tornado threat is relatively low but a few tornadoes are possible.
Meanwhile, a disturbance in the subtropical jet stream that has been producing heavy rain across much of Texas this week has weakened considerably
Moisture from this system is being pulled northward and is interacting  with the northern system. This will enhance rainfall totals from the Appalachians to the East Coast through Sunday  so some locations will see heavy rain, along with the threat for severe thunderstorms.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats.

Sunday

  • Forecast: Severe storms and locally heavy rain, from parts of New York state to eastern Georgia, most numerous in the mid-Atlantic states.
  • Threats: Damaging wind gusts, leading to downed trees, tree limbs and power outages. Some hail and a few tornadoes are also possible.
  • Cities: Philadelphia | Washington D.C. | Richmond | Raleigh | Charlotte

Sunday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Parts of the eastern U.S. will see heavy rain through Sunday. The heaviest rain (2 to 4 inches) with locally heavier amounts are more likely across the Appalachians (localized flooding is possible). A general area of 1 to 3 inches of rain could fall from the Carolinas up to New England.

Rainfall Forecast Through Sunday
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MORE: Severe Weather And Flooding March 30-31, 2016

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