Warm May Expected To Lead Into a Hot Summer Ahead For Much Of The Nation

Tom Moore
Published: April 22,2016



 
Temperatures in May and through the summer months ahead will be warmer than average across a large part of the western and northern United States according to an outlook released Friday by The Weather Company.
In May, areas from the West Coast through the Pacific Northwest and eastward to the northern Plains are expected to see temperatures above average.
The best chance for significantly above-average temperatures in May will be across the Pacific Northwest, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company's Energy Division.
Relatively cool and wet conditions will likely be confined to areas from the southern Plains down through Texas, Crawford said.

The general weather pattern that resulted in bursts of cold air moving into the U.S. from late March through a good portion of April continues to fade and signals now point to warmer times ahead. Current indicators suggest that the warmth should really ramp up during the second half of May.
There remains a bit of uncertainty regarding parts of the eastern U.S. for May, but temperatures should be at least near average and probably a bit above average.

June-August 

"The scales are currently tipped toward warmer than average summers," Crawford said. "In fact, the past six summers have been the hottest six-year stretch in the last 120 years and this summer should continue the recent trend."
Well-above-average temperatures are expected this summer for the northern tier of states from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast.
Warmer-than-average temperatures will also extend from California through the central and southern Plains and Southeast.
The only area where cooler than average temperatures are expected this summer will be across much of Texas to Louisiana.

"The historically strong El Nino event is weakening rapidly and we should transition to La Nina conditions by summer and this favors another hot summer, especially across the northern U.S.," said Dr. Crawford.
Another factor to consider regarding temperatures this summer are sea surface temperatures in the western North Atlantic, which are forecast to be warmer than we have seen over the past five years. That often results in warmer temperatures in the eastern U.S.  In addition, conditions across the Pacific Ocean, influenced by the strong El Nino, will favor warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the West, especially the Pacific Northwest.
Most computer forecast models continue to suggest that the transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions will occur this summer. Typically, La Nina summers feature hotter temperatures from the central U.S. into the Northeast, with the hottest month being July.
Crawford notes that during previous years where rapid changes from El Nino to La Nina occurred, the worst of the summer heat was focused from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes states.
Overall,  computer model guidance indicates widespread warmth with little hint of cooler than average temperatures across the nation. The West will likely see warm and dry conditions, strongly influenced by the recent El Nino.
The heat should be less significant across the southern states where temperatures should generally average around to slightly above average.

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