Severe Thunderstorm Threat Returns to the Plains, South Through Tuesday (FORECAST)

Quincy Vagell
Published: April 9,2016
A threat for severe thunderstorms will return to parts of the Plains and South starting Sunday afternoon and evening. In addition to the potential for severe weather, locally heavy rain will also be possible, particularly over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
This is a region that has been hit several times with excessive rain since March.
(MORE: Record Flooding Strikes Southern States)
The upcoming threat of severe weather will be triggered by an upper-level storm system bringing rain to parts of California and the Desert Southwest, pivoting into the South.
A combination of wind shear, or changing wind directions at different levels of the atmosphere, surface low pressure tracking along the front from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, and warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will all be factors in igniting severe thunderstorms.

This is a fairly typical early spring setup for severe thunderstorms from the southern Plains into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast, although this does not look like an outbreak by any stretch of the imagination. Nonetheless, severe weather, including a few tornadoes, will be possible.
Below is a look at what is currently expected into the coming week.

Severe Weather Forecast

Sunday

• Low pressure rides along a front sliding through the Plains, while a dryline sharpens across the southern High Plains.
• A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop over parts of west and northwest Texas into Oklahoma, southern and eastern Kansas and Missouri.
• Large hail is the primary threat, but gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms, especially late Sunday night.
• Other thunderstorms and locally heavy rain may impact parts of the Midwest into Sunday night, although any severe threat appears low in this region due to limited instability.
• Cities: Abilene | Wichita Falls | Oklahoma City

Sunday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Monday

• The frontal system gradually moves southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South with a dryline positioned over Texas.
• Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across east Texas into southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana.
• Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.
• Heavy rain and local flash flooding could develop across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley.
• Cities: Dallas-Fort Worth | Shreveport | Little Rock

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Tuesday

• The front continues to move southeastward toward the Gulf Coast.
• Instability and available wind shear appear less robust than prior days, which may limit any severe threat.
• Nonetheless, a broad area from Texas, eastward across the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas may see a few strong to locally severe storms.

Wednesday/Thursday

• A second upper-level storm system swings across the South.
• This time, warm, moist low-level air and instability may be limited to Deep South Texas and areas near the northern Gulf Coast.
• Thus, the threat of any severe t-storms may remain pinned to these areas Wednesday/Thursday.

(MAPS: 7-Day Rain/Snow National Forecast)
Continue to check back with weather.com for updated information in the coming days.

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