Published: April 24,2016
The first bout of potentially damaging storms brought large hail and a few reports of tornadoes to the Plains states Sunday. The chance for a few severe thunderstorms will move into the southern Great Lakes region on Monday.
(MORE: Tornadoes, Hail Impact Plains Sunday)
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
Then, a potential outbreak of severe storms, including the possibility of strong, long-track tornadoes, is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional rounds of severe storms will follow for late in the week and potentially into next weekend. This could include yet another widespread outbreak.
(MORE: April's Tornado Pace Slow So Far)
Below we are the forecast details through the week ahead.
Upper-level and surface pattern setting up Tuesday and Wednesday.Why We're Concerned: The Setup
In general, spring severe outbreaks are triggered when a southward dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, surges east into the Plains states.That precise pattern looks to be shaping up this week, particularly by Tuesday.
In fact, there appear to be three distinct upper-level disturbances embedded in that general trough that each will help ignite rounds of severe thunderstorms through next weekend.
Ahead of each upper disturbance, progressively richer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will push northward, adding to instability from the pockets of cold, dry air aloft. This combination of ingredients will fuel the development of severe thunderstorms.
(MORE: Why April is a Dangerous Month)
Severe Weather Forecast
In any severe weather forecast several days out, there are key uncertainties, such as the amount of sunshine increasing instability the day of the event, that can affect the overall coverage and severity of severe weather.(INTERACTIVE: Your 7-Day Severe Weather Outlook)
Therefore, check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather as our forecasts come into focus in the days ahead.
For now, here's an outlook of potentially the most active severe weather periods into next weekend.
Into Early Monday
- Scattered severe t-storms from southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota into parts of central and northern Kansas.
- Overall outbreak potential: Not expected
- Threats: Large hail is the primary threat but damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible.
- Cities: Omaha, Nebraska | Topeka, Kansas
- Isolated severe t-storms from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwestern Michigan, northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio.
- Overall outbreak potential: Not expected
- Threats: Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado are possible.
- Cities: Chicago | Milwaukee, Wisconsin | South Bend, Indiana
Monday's Thunderstorm Outlook
- Outbreak of severe t-storms in parts of the central and southern Plains, particularly in southern Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, north-central and central Texas. The threat may spread into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas, as well, into the evening.
- Overall outbreak potential: Moderate to high
- Threats: Tornadoes (possibly strong/long-track), very large hail, damaging winds
- Cities: Dallas-Fort Worth | Hastings, Nebraska | Oklahoma City | Tulsa, Oklahoma | Wichita, Kansas
Tuesday's Thunderstorm Outlook
- Severe t-storms could again be rather numerous from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, Ozarks and northeast Texas.
- Overall outbreak potential: Moderate
- Threats: Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds
- Cities: Little Rock | Paducah, Kentucky | St. Louis
Wednesday's Thunderstorm Outlook
- Once again, more widespread severe t-storms are possible in the central and southern Plains, possibly extending east into parts of the Mississippi Valley.
- Severe t-storms are possible each day in these areas at times Thursday into next weekend (Apr. 30 - May 1).
- Overall outbreak potential: Too soon to tell, but could be at least moderate on one or more days.
The uncertainty about late in the week centers primarily around the timing of when the entire western upper-level trough pushes east out into the Plains states, which would dictate when the most widespread severe thunderstorm threat (possible outbreak) would occur.
Now is a good time to refresh your memory on severe weather preparedness.
(MORE: 7 Things You Should Never Forget When Tornadoes Threaten | Tornado Safety Page)
Do you know where to go in your home, condo, apartment, office or school when a tornado warning is issued? What if you're caught out in the open?
The time to have a tornado safety plan is now, before a tornado strikes.
Sunday's Storm Reports
Sunday evening, a tornado was reported near Holyrood, Kansas and near Glendale, Kansas, with numerous reports of funnel clouds near Ellsworth. Hail up to 3 inches in diameter was also observed near New Cambria, Kansas. Two tornadoes were also spotted in southern Nebraska, near Superior and Deshler Sunday evening. Damage to a trailer home has also been reported in Munden, Kansas, possibly due to a tornado and two people were injured during the storm.Damage from a possible tornado was also reported in League City, Texas Sunday evening, including roof and fence damage.
Farther north, there were multiple reports of a brief tornado near Delavan, Minnesota Sunday night. A tornado was also reported near Waseca, Minnesota.
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