Will a Nor'easter Kickoff Spring With East Coast Snow?

Jon Erdman
Published: March 17,2016

A potential nor'easter may bring snow to the East Coast just after spring officially arrives, despite a winter that had been relatively lacking in snow, with one big exception.
(MORE: The Science Behind the First Day of Spring)
If you needed any more reminders of how changeable the weather can be this time of year, this is your exhibit A.

A man rollerblades near the Bethesda Terrace in Central Park, Manhattan, New York City, March 9,2016 as people take advantage of the warm weather in the city.
(TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

Consider what we've seen recently in the East:

• A record warm December-February in New England, and one of the warmest on record in much of the East. 
• A rash of severe thunderstorms as far north as Maine in late February.
• The warmest temperatures so early in the season on March 9 in the Northeast, including low 80s in Albany, New York.
• Through March 16, this has been the least snowy season-to-date in both Albany, New York (10.3 inches), and Binghamton, New York (22.3 inches).

If it wasn't for the near record-setting snowfall from Winter Storm Jonas, New York's Central Park would be on pace for its least snowy season in 14 years. Only 4.8 inches of snow has fallen outside of that late January snowstorm.
It only stands to reason, then, that a chance of snow moves into the East after all that.
Let's break down what we know, and what we still don't know at this time.

Big Question Marks

As is fairly typical for most East Coast snow events, there remains a degree of uncertainty this far out.
First, colder air will gradually work its way into the East Friday, a pattern change led by a gyre of low pressure is slowly spinning down over the Great Lakes.
(MORE: Midwest Winds, Snow From a Pattern Change)
One of the reasons for the uncertainty is a complicated upper-level pattern. Exactly how the interaction of (A) a digging shortwave trough from the Rockies, (B) a remnant circulation from the aforementioned Midwest gyre and (C) a sharp southward dip in the jet stream nosediving southeastward from Canada will help determine how this potential East Coast system evolves.

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Jonathan Erdman ✔ ‎@wxjerdman

Fascinating interplay of upr systems for pot'l #noreaster. Could argue remnant of Midwest gyre ("B") plays role. pic.twitter.com/a34cBTaK4g

7:30 AM - 17 Mar 2016

In response to all this, low pressure should develop and intensify somewhere near or off the East Coast Sunday and Monday.
The $64,000 question then is, "Where will the center of low pressure track?"

The Setup Sunday/Monday

A closer track to the East Coast would bring a better chance of significant snow, or perhaps even a period of rain closer to the coast, from parts of Virginia and North Carolina to New England. At this time, the majority of our guidance suggests this potential Sunday and Monday, to some degree.
However, it's too early to rule out a track farther offshore, which would only brush coastal New England with light snow, leaving other except in the Appalachians dry.
(FORECAST: Boston | New York | Philadelphia | Washington D.C. | Bangor, Maine)
Our latest forecast Sunday and Monday is shown below.
If the snowier East Coast scenario would come to pass, this could pose travel headaches including flight delays/cancellations out of some major Northeast hubs and a challenging Monday morning commute in parts of New England.
(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast Highs/Lows | Weekly Planner)
Fortunately, this system should move rather quickly, either out to sea or into Atlantic Canada by Monday night.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential storm and any likely forecast changes ahead.

Sunday's Outlook

Monday's Outlook

MORE: Winter Storm Jonas (PHOTOS)