Published: March 7,2016
A dangerous threat of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will take aim at parts of the Plains and South starting Monday and then persisting into at least midweek.
The severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. Meanwhile, repeated rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms could lead to rainfall totals approaching a foot in the south-central states when all is said and done late this week.
Below is a breakdown of the severe weather and flooding threats the next several days followed by an explanation of what is causing the stormy weather.
Severe Weather, Flood Forecast
Monday- Severe thunderstorms with damaging straight-line winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible, mainly from southern Kansas southward into central and southern Texas. That said, and isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out farther north in the Plains.
- The greatest tornado threat will likely be confined to the southern Plains, where more substantial moisture will be in place.
- Cities: Dallas | Oklahoma City | Wichita
Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected from parts of Texas and Oklahoma, eastward into Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana.
- Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated in central and eastern Texas, much of Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and western Louisiana, with damaging winds, large hail and possibly tornadoes.
- The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding will also increase from Texas to parts of Louisiana and Arkansas.
- Cities: Houston | Shreveport | Little Rock | Joplin
Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
- As the jet stream digs south into Mexico, a plume of Gulf moisture will steadily feed northward.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will affect East Texas into eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana.
- Flooding will become the most serious risk, particularly from the Texas coast, northward to the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.
- Locally heavy rain will be possible as far north as eastern Kansas, Missouri and southern Illinois.
- Some strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible from the western Gulf Coast to the lower Mississippi Valley.
- The National Weather Service has issued flash flood watches from southeast Oklahoma and southwest Akransas to eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
- A "cutoff" low sits and spins over Mexico and Texas, keeping a stream of moisture pointed at the south-central states.
- Periods of showers and thunderstorms will take aim over a broad area from Texas and Oklahoma, eastward to the Mississippi River and Tennessee Valley.
- The heaviest rain targets parts of East Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, southern Missouri and Louisiana.
- Persistent bands of rain and thunderstorms may ultimately drop a foot of rain in some of these areas.
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, particularly near the western to central Gulf Coast.
Rainfall Forecast Through March 12
Flood Alerts
Slow-Moving Low Pressure = Flooding and Severe Weather
An impressive storm system has barreled onshore across the West and it will continue to dive southeast across the country early this week.(MORE: Pineapple Express Returns to California)
By midweek, a massive, slow-moving, southward dip in the jet stream will inch east across Mexico, then near the Gulf Coast, funneling deep, tropical moisture into parts of the South and Mississippi Valley, a rather unusual pattern for early March.
These ingredients will come together for several bouts of thunderstorms and excessive rainfall from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley and surrounding areas over the next several days
It appears that the upper level low will
begin to finally pull away from the southern Plains this weekend,
gradually lessening the threat for severe thunderstorms and flooding.
Continue to check back with weather.com for updated information and forecasts in the coming days.MORE: Goliath Causes Tornadoes, Flooding
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