Severe Weather, Serious Flood Threats Return to Plains, South This Week (FORECAST)

Quincy Vagell
Published: March 6,2016
A dual threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain is shaping up in parts of the Plains and South this week. While some locations may see strong to severe storms, flash flooding will likely be the biggest concern from the Gulf Coast to possibly as far north as parts of the Midwest.
An impressive storm system has barreled onshore across the West and it will continue to dive southeast across the country early this week.
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By midweek, a massive, slow-moving, southward dip in the jet stream will inch east across Mexico, then near the Gulf Coast, funneling deep, tropical moisture into parts of the South and Mississippi Valley, a rather unusual pattern for early March.

A major southward plunge in the jet stream will tap into deep, Gulf moisture, fueling a threat for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

These ingredients will come together for several bouts of thunderstorms and excessive rainfall from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley and surrounding areas over the next several days
Below is a breakdown of how the latest forecast looks for the week ahead.

Severe Weather, Flood Forecast

Monday

• Low pressure at the surface develops east of the Rockies, pulling moisture northward into the Plains.
• Thunderstorms may develop ahead of the storm system across the Plains from Minnesota to Texas.
• Severe thunderstorms with damaging straight-line winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible, mainly from portions of southeastern South Dakota into eastern and central Kansas southward into central and southern Texas.
• The greatest tornado threat will likely be confined to the southern Plains, where more substantial moisture will be in place.
• Cities: Dallas | Oklahoma City | Wichita

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Tuesday

• The surface low pivots northeast into the Upper Midwest with moisture continuing to increase across the Mississippi Valley.
• Showers and thunderstorms are expected from parts of Texas and Oklahoma, eastward into Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana.
• Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated in northern and eastern Texas, southern and central Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and western Louisiana, with damaging winds, large hail and possibly tornadoes.
• The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding will also increase from the mid-Mississippi Valley to Texas.
• Cities: Houston | Shreveport | Little Rock | Joplin

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Wednesday

• As the jet stream digs south into Mexico, a plume of Gulf moisture will steadily feed northward.
• Widespread showers and thunderstorms will affect East Texas into eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana.
• Flooding will become the most serious risk, particularly from the Texas coast, northward to the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.
• Locally heavy rain will be possible as far north as eastern Kansas, Missouri and southern Illinois.
• Some strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible from the western Gulf Coast to the lower Mississippi Valley.

Thursday - Saturday

• A "cutoff" low sits and spins over Mexico and Texas, keeping the moisture stream going.
• Periods of showers and thunderstorms persist over a broad area from Texas and Oklahoma, eastward to the Mississippi River and Tennessee Valley.
• The heaviest rain targets parts of East Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, southern Missouri and Louisiana.
• Persistent bands of rain and thunderstorms may ultimately drop a foot of rain in some of these areas.
• Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, particularly near the western to central Gulf Coast.

Rainfall Forecast Through March 12

It appears that the upper level low will begin to finally pull away from the southern Plains this weekend, gradually lessening the threat for severe thunderstorms and flooding.
Continue to check back with weather.com for updated information and forecasts in the coming days.
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