Cold air may set stage for snow in northeastern US this weekend

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

March 15,2016; 10:43PM,EDT

 

 

Following a mild St. Patrick's Day, colder air will settle over the northeastern United States this weekend.
The cold air will set the stage for spotty flurries or perhaps a period of heavy snow, depending upon the track of a storm.
Air to turn cold enough for snow
As a result, temperatures from this weekend into much of next week will range from near to slightly below average.

This weekend, highs will range from the middle 30s F in northern Maine to the middle 40s from northern Pennsylvania to central Massachusetts and the middle 50s in northern Virginia.
Temperatures may spend only a brief time near the forecast high and can be 10-20 degrees lower during much of the day.
The air will be cold enough to allow wet snow to fall in some locations this weekend into next week, including a portion of the daylight hours.
The intensity and duration of the snow from Sunday to Monday will depend on the track of a storm expected to form over the Southern states.
Snow chances will rely on the storm track
A storm will take shape and affect the Southern states late this week. Questions remain about the track of the storm as it nears the Atlantic coast.
There is a great deal of uncertainty about a storm tracking northward along the Atlantic Seaboard during Sunday and Monday, according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.

"This far out there are many variables that could affect the track of the storm, which has not formed yet, so it is too early to call one way or another," Abrams said.
"As more pieces of the puzzle are put in place, we will be able to make the call as to whether the storm will head out to sea or hug the coast."
Should the storm track right along the coast, all or mostly rain will fall in the Interstate-95 corridor with the potential for a heavy snowfall farther to the northwest.
Should the storm travel just off the coast, there will be a greater chance for heavy wet snow in the swath from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.
In another scenario, the storm could swing too far east to bring heavy snow to the mid-Atlantic, but it could still make a turn toward New England.
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"Even in the absence of a storm along the coast, flurries could produce the first snowflakes in two weeks or more for parts of southern New England and the mid-Atlantic region," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
Even in the higher elevations, in order for snow to accumulate on roads during the daylight hours, it must fall at a very heavy rate to overcome the March sun effect. Because of the recent warmth, some of the wet snow will melt as it falls, especially on paved areas.
AccuWeather will continue to provide updates on the weekend storm potential, including the chance of snow, any wind and coastal flooding concerns.
One to two additional opportunities for wet snow are possible from next week to Easter Sunday weekend as chilly air will remain entrenched.