February 1,2016; 9:30PM,EST
Since the tradition of Groundhog Day began in Punxsutawney in 1886, Phil has seen his shadow, on record, 102 times. There were 17 times that he did not see his shadow, and nine years during the late 1800s that there is no record of Phil's forecast.
Infographic: All There is to Know About Phil
Though Phil's method may seem flawed -- anticipating that the sight of his shadow determines a longer winter, while no shadow calls for an early spring -- he has a tendency to get it right. Because the year's coldest quarter, also known as meteorological winter, runs from Dec. 5 to March 5, Phil's accuracy in predicting a longer winter is about 80 percent.
Phil's logic comes from the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox observances of Candlemas Day, tracing back almost 1,000 years.
Groundhog
Club handler Ron Ploucha, left, holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather
prognosticating groundhog, during the 129th celebration of Groundhog Day
on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Monday, Feb. 2, 2015. (AP
Photo/Gene J. Puskar)"An early association between the weather forecast and the religious observance is found in a Scottish couplet: 'If Candlemas is fair and clear / There'll be two winters in the year,'" AccuWeather Chief Forecaster Elliot Abrams said.
"If the weather is 'fair,' the groundhog sees its shadow, and this is supposed to mean six more weeks of winter," Abrams said. "This is somewhat like saying that despite the sunshine on Groundhog Day, more winter is due." In any case, on this Groundhog Day, the Northeast and Northwest can plan on seeing six more weeks of winter.
Phil will emerge to make his prognostication around 7:25 a.m. EST on Feb. 2, 2016.
Sue Veres Royal ·
Works at Nonprofit Consultant
Writer should check her facts...80% accuracy rate.lol
Richard Dockery ·
Please see your shadow so we win on streak for the cash!
Craig Campbell ·
Groundhog day is cancelled.... Phil is snowed in to his burrow.
Jason Warren
I
think Texas is ready for Spring. Perhaps one more snow day would be
well appreciated, but I'm looking forward to Spring. That's if it
decides to cooperate down here, as Texas only has two seasons- Summer
and Winter. And with that said, Winters are usually bipolar... However,
Spring and Fall may occur every once in a while, and that's why I hope
Texas gets an early Spring. WAIT. NEVERMIND, an early Spring leads to an
early Summer, and you know Texas has wicked Summers so BRING IT ON,
WINTER!
Gary Stump ·
Your winters may be bipolar but you sound schizophrenic! LOL
Daniel Clamage ·
Since
astronomically Winter is ALWAYS 6 weeks away, anytime he says
otherwise, he must be wrong. But since he's only called for an "early"
Spring 9x in the last 115 recorded predictions, he still has an accuracy
of 86%, which is better than any human meteorologist, and especially
all climatologists.
Lisa Meeker ·
Um...no matter if he sees his shadow or not it's still 6 more weeks til spring...duh...lol.
Amirbek Ernazarov ·
winter is coming 100%.
Stephen Anthony Mendez ·
Six more weeks of this type of winter we r having....BRING IT ON!
Debbie Mancini knows her way around ground hog day. She will join the VOCM GMS tomorrow to talk all this GHog.
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