Potential Winter Storm Could Bring Snow, Ice to Midwest, South and East Next Week

Chris Dolce
Published: February 10,2016


 
Snow and ice may take aim on a swath of states from the Midwest and South to the Northeast early next week as a new weather system develops in the central states and heads east. Though many states could see wintry weather from this potential storm, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in the details, which is not uncommon this far in advance.

Potential Snow and Ice Setup

The first ingredient in this wintry setup is the arctic air being ushered in by strong high pressure. This will bring the coldest temperatures of the winter so far to the Northeast this weekend.
The southerly wind flow on the western flank of that high-pressure system in combination with upper-level energy and surface low pressure to its west will help pull moisture north into the cold air, resulting in the possibility of snow and ice.
(MORE: Coldest Air of the Season Incoming)

Upper-level energy and surface low pressure push east into cold air supplied by high pressure in the East as moisture returns north.

How all of the above-mentioned features will evolve and interact is not clear at this time. But here's what we do know:

• Forecast guidance disagrees on the track and strength of the weather system moving east from out of the central states, which makes it difficult to pinpoint the location of where we may see significant amounts of snow and/or ice.
• The severity of any snow or ice in the Southeast depends on how long and how far south sufficient cold air (32 degrees or below) will remain in place and how much moisture moves into that cold air.
• Eventually low pressure may pivot northward inland, near, or off the Northeast coast early next week. The track of this low will determine whether parts of the Northeast region see snow, rain or nothing at all.

Now that we've outlined the uncertainty, let's take a look at the forecast for early next week. Keep in mind, however, that the forecast you see on weather.com or on your mobile app will likely change the next few days, so be sure to check back often for the latest updates.
(MORE: One of Warmest, Wettest Winters So Far)

Sunday-Sunday Night

• Areas to watch: At least light snow may develop across the Midwest to as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas and eastward into portions of the mid-South and Ohio Valley. South of the snow zone, a strip of sleet or freezing rain is possible.
• Potential impacts: It's too early to say, but all of the above-mentioned locations have the potential to see at least light snow and/or ice accumulations.
• Potential cities: Louisville, Kentucky | Nashville | St. Louis

Sunday's Forecast

Sunday Night's Forecast

Monday

• Areas to watch: Snow possible from the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians on Monday. Moisture may overrun subfreezing air near the surface, leading to the potential of freezing rain and sleet in parts of the Tennessee Valley and Piedmont from parts of Virginia, western/central North Carolina to north Georgia, northern Alabama and southern Tennessee. How far south and how long the sufficient cold remains in place will dictate the extent of this icing potential.
• Potential impacts: Accumulating snow possible in Appalachians and Ohio Valley. The possibility of icing in the above-mentioned areas could at least cause slick travel conditions and, if subfreezing surface temperatures persist longer, could lead to some tree damage and power outages.
• Potential cities: Atlanta | Cincinnati, Ohio | Greensboro, North Carolina

Monday's Forecast

Monday Night-Tuesday

• This portion of the forecast remains uncertain, and depends on the track and strength of any low-pressure system that moves through the East.
• Computer model forecast guidance ranges from mainly light precipitation in the Northeast and parts of the Southeast to heavier amounts of rain, snow or ice.
• Check back with weather.com for updates.

Monday Night's Forecast

MORE: Snowflakes Under a Microscope