Weekend System May Bring Snow, Severe Thunderstorms to South

Linda Lam
Published: January 15,2016
A low pressure system will impact portions of the South this weekend and there is even a chance of a few snowflakes. Most of the region, however, will see rain showers. Severe thunderstorms are also possible.
One area of low pressure already brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Southeast and lower Middle Atlantic region on Friday. This is the system that will develop into a nor'easter off the New England coast, although most of the Northeast will not see snow from this system.
(MORE: Possible Weekend Nor'easter?)
Then right on its heels, a second low pressure system will develop in the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast Saturday. This system will slide east through the South and will push off the East Coast on Sunday.
Depending on the exact track of the low pressure, along with how much cold air is in place and how much moisture overlaps with that cold air, there could be some wintry conditions in the South this weekend. However, there is much uncertainty at this time and most areas will either stay dry or see precipitation in the form of rain.
Below are the details on the current thinking of where snowflakes may fall and where severe weather could develop.

Snowflakes in the South

Given that this is mid-January and another surge of Arctic air will be moving into the East this weekend and into early next week, there is the concern that some snow will fall in the South this weekend.
(MORE: Another Arctic Blast Ahead)
Temperatures will be below freezing to start the day on Saturday in much of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This will help to set the stage for some wintry conditions. On Sunday morning, low temperatures will be in the 20s from the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee and in the 30s from Raleigh to Atlanta and westward into Texas. This leads to the possibility of some flurries in spots Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

Saturday's Forecast

A light mix of snow and rain, along with some light freezing rain, are possible in portions of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas into Saturday as a disturbance moves into Texas from the Southwest. A winter weather advisory has been issued for portions of southwestern Oklahoma and the eastern panhandle of Texas for Friday night into Saturday morning where 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible, which could make for some slippery travel conditions.
(INTERACTIVE: Winter Weather Alerts)
Elsewhere, generally less than an inch of accumulation, mainly on grassy surfaces, will be found from the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma and far north Texas. Surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing for much of the region, therefore, travel impacts are not anticipated, except in the areas where the winter weather advisories have been posted.
(FORECAST: Amarillo, Texas | Wichita Falls, Texas | Dallas)

Saturday Night's Forecast

Sunday's Forecast

As this system moves east there is the potential for flurries or possibly even some light snow from northern Mississippi into the Carolinas and southern Virginia Saturday and into Sunday. At this time widespread snowfall accumulation is not expected outside of the mountains of western North Carolina and southern Virginia. Here, a light snow accumulation is not out of the question.
Farther east, some of the computer models develop just enough cold air for a strip of light snow into central to eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Though it will only take a slight shift in temperatures and track of the storm for a light accumulation of snow here as well, that scenario remains uncertain at this time.
(FORECAST: Asheville, North Carolina | Atlanta | Huntsville, Alabama)

Thunderstorm Threat

Most of the South will not experience snow this weekend. The low pressure system will likely track far enough south that rain will be the predominant precipitation type.
Rainfall will generally be light over the weekend with most areas seeing under an inch of rain through Sunday night. Locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms that develop. The highest rainfall totals will likely be found from the Florida Panhandle into central Florida.

Rainfall Forecast

On Saturday, rain showers are expected in eastern Texas and Louisiana with a few thunderstorms possible along the Texas coast. Severe thunderstorms are not likely during the day.
(MORE: Severe Thunderstorm Forecast)
The chance for showers will be found from Louisiana through southern Mississippi into southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida by Saturday night. Severe thunderstorms may develop in central and southern Florida after midnight.
(FORECAST: New Orleans | Mobile, Alabama | Tampa | Miami)

Sunday's Thunderstorm Forecast

A cold front associated with the area of low pressure will push through the Southeast on Sunday. Thunderstorms are likely to  continue moving through central and southern Florida where a few severe thunderstorms are possible during the morning. Elsewhere, showers are expected from the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
Dry conditions will return to the Southeast by Sunday night.
MORE: Winter Storm Hera (PHOTOS)