By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
January 6,2016; 10:22PM,EST
During the middle of January, a brief shift of the polar vortex will direct waves of cold air southward and could raise the chance of snow in the central and eastern United States that have experienced little cold or snow thus far this season.
The pattern of cold air coming and going will continue be a theme for January.
Arctic air on the way; threat for snow Midwest, Northeast
The mild air will reach a peak over the northern Plains on Friday, the Midwest on Saturday and the East on Sunday.
Temperatures will peak in the middle 30s F in Minneapolis, the lower 40s in Chicago, the upper 50s in Washington, D.C., and near 60 in Atlanta. However, the warmup will be of short duration.
Arctic express poised to ramp up
According to AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, "Blasts of cold air will sweep in over much of the Central and Eastern states next week [Jan. 10-16]."
The polar vortex will shift southward across Canada and set up near Hudson Bay for a several-day stint during the second full week of January.
Even though this setup is not uncommon for January, it will deliver a widespread shock following record warmth during December.
While the core of the cold air with the arctic outbreak during the first few days of January focused on the Northeast, the outbreak next week will first plunge across the Rockies and Plains, before turning eastward.
The first wave of the frigid air will sweep across the Plains and Midwest this weekend. NFL fans heading to the game at Minneapolis on Sunday should be prepared for one of the coldest playoff games on record with AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures well below zero.
The first wave will reach the East in modified form during Monday into Tuesday.
Additional waves of frigid air will rotate around the polar vortex like a giant wheel with each pushing progressively colder air farther east and south.
"A blast will sweep quickly southeastward around Jan. 13, followed by another blast around Jan. 16," Pastelok said.
Even though the air will continue to moderate as it moves along this path, there is still the likelihood of the lowest temperatures of the season so far from the northern Rockies and Plains to the Midwest, and South during the middle days of the month. The cold air could even dip below levels reached during Jan. 3-4 in the Northeast.
RELATED:
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Disruptive snow and ice aim for central, eastern US at late week
What is a polar vortex?
During the second week of January, highs will be within a few degrees of zero F over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Lows will be well below zero in the region.
With the mid-month cold blast, several days with highs in the teens are likely in Chicago. High temperatures on one or more days in New York City could be held to the 20s. Temperatures could struggle to climb past the lower 40s as far south as Atlanta with hard freezes at night across the interior South. However, freezes are likely to stop short of the Florida Peninsula during the mid-month cold outbreak.
Cold to bring opportunities for snow
As the first wave of cold air begins to push southward and eastward, a storm will bring the potential for accumulating snow over part of the Midwest on Sunday.
The same storm on Sunday will bring rain along the Atlantic Seaboard. However, the storm could end as snow or snow showers over parts of the Appalachians.
The track of a trailing storm will determine whether snow or clearing occurs in the coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and New England during Monday into Tuesday.
"During the second full week of January, the pattern will evolve where Alberta clipper storms sweep southeastward around the polar vortex," Pastelok said.
These fast-moving, cold storms have the potential to bring quick light to moderate snowfall over parts of the Plains, the Great Lakes and the central and northern Appalachians.
If one of these systems was to strengthen upon nearing the Atlantic coast, then there could be significant snow in the Interstate-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic later next week.
Regardless of the extent of storms bringing general snowfall, bands of heavy lake-effect snow will develop as the cold air streams across the Midwest during the middle days of the month. The pattern could unload a few feet of snow and produce local blizzard conditions, where lake-effect bands persist.
Polar vortex forecast to retreat northward past mid-month
"Indications are the polar vortex will retreat northward beyond Jan. 16," Pastelok said. "There is a significant chance that milder air from the Pacific will mix in from west to east beginning on or before the third week of January."
While the Pacific air would allow temperatures to trend to near or above average in many areas, the recovery would likely stop well short of record warmth.
"Because of a buildup of snowcover over eastern Canada and big storms moving offshore, cold air may continue to periodically invade part of the Northeast, especially New England, during the latter part of January," Pastelok said.
Despite the forecast retreat of arctic air during the second half of the month, the air may remain cold enough for storms that come along to bring snow in parts of the Central, Southern and Northeastern states.
Chris Vincent ·
I
live in West Michigan and I have been watching the weather the last few
days alot and from watching I am beginning to think these weather
people do not even know how much snow is coming because we have major
cold artic air coming over the big lake that still have water temps in
the 40's. All I do know is that the Lake-Effect Snow is to start
Saturday night with Blizzard like condition's Sunday. Then Monday
through at least Wednesday or Thursday West Michigan region may see
major Lake-Effect Snow. All I am saying is West Michigan has not seen
alot of snow this season so far because of the strong EL Nino so with
this massive storm coming I am hoping to see tons and tons of snow.
Joanna Dale ·
We are coming to NYC from Perth, Australia at the end of January. Looking forward to seeing snow ....
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
nice to see the word "brief" used regarding this change to colder
Hope Wolfe Worley
what is the winter outlook for Central Florida?
Keith Hodges
Our winter has been fridgid with the high temperature only reaching 70 degrees today.
Joseph Miller
So
here we go again,winter 2016,and the guessing game begins again,will it
or not snow,will it be bad as 2015 or not,will it be warmer or not and
so it goes on and on.
Dean White ·
Yeah...and I can't wait until the hurricane predictions start...
Daniel Martin ·
I'm
in Windsor Ontario, concerned with the possibilities of Potential Power
Outages from Winds and Ice Accumulation, what are my chances here with
this approaching arctic cold? We have a lot of rotting trees because of
the prolonged warmth, which makes me a bit nervous for power-line
strikes should wind force and ice weight be a factor on trees and
cables.
Jeremy Toney ·
This
Arctic Blast Polar Vortex thing is affecting New York, New Jersey,
Minneapolis, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Nashville, Chattanooga,
Atlanta, and more should be the coldest possible temps next week similar
to last year and the year before that.
Daniel Fryson ·
...and
don't forget Pennsylvania too Jeremy. Being from Western Pennsylvania,
I'm hoping a nice snowstorm or two before January ends.
Adithya Ramachandran ·
This "Arctic Blast" next week Doesnt seem to be affecting Atlanta. Highs around 50 are pretty much normal for january.
The last 2 days seem to be the coldest possible temps for january.
The last 2 days seem to be the coldest possible temps for january.
Ed Roberts ·
Every
time we come to Florida it get cold,last year we got down here in late
Jan,it got cold before we came down it was warmer, this year we got here
New Year's Eve and cold,we are along to up gulf coast Panacea,Fl
Adithya Ramachandran ·
It was 22 F today morning, and going up to 50 F in the afternoon.
I'd say the annoying point here is the extreme variations between night and day rather than the cold. I'm comfortable as long as daily temperatures contained within a 15 F range, because I can plan accordingly.
I'd say the annoying point here is the extreme variations between night and day rather than the cold. I'm comfortable as long as daily temperatures contained within a 15 F range, because I can plan accordingly.
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