By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
January 4,2016; 10:07PM,EST
A glancing blow from the polar vortex will direct cold air southward and could raise the chance of snow in the central and eastern United States toward the middle of January.
The pattern of cold air coming and going will be a theme through January.
According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "Arctic air will leave quickly, after giving the Great Lakes and Northeast a cold shock this week."
Temperatures will rebound to above-average levels in much of the Midwest and Northeast during the latter part of this week and this coming weekend.
High temperatures will return to the 30s in Minneapolis, the 40s in Chicago, the 50s in Washington, D.C., and the 60s in Atlanta for multiple days. The warmup will be of short duration.
According to AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, "A major and far-reaching blast of cold air will sweep in over much of the Central and Eastern states next week [Jan. 10-17]."
Winter returns; snow threat this weekend and next week
While this arctic blast is not uncommon for January, it will deliver a cold shock following record warmth during December. The cold will also affect a large swath of the nation.
While the core of the cold air with the arctic outbreak early this week focused on the Northeast, the outbreak next week will first plunge across the Rockies and Plains, before turning eastward.
Even though the air will moderate as it moves along this path, there is still the likelihood of the lowest temperatures of the season so far from the northern Rockies and Plains to the Midwest, South and East by the middle of the month.
Temperatures will dip below average even for the middle of January.
During the second week of January, highs will be within a few degrees of zero F over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Lows will be well below zero in the region.
With the mid-month cold blast, multiple days with highs in the teens are likely in Chicago. High temperatures on one or more days in New York City could be held to the 20s. Temperatures could struggle to climb past the lower 40s as far south as Atlanta with hard freezes at night across the interior South. However, freezes are likely to stop short of the Florida Peninsula during the mid-month cold outbreak.
As the cold air first begins to push southward and eastward, a couple of storms will have the potential to bring a general swath of wintry precipitation from part of the interior South to the Northeast during the first half of next week.
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How much snow falls and where will depend on the track and strength of the storms, Pastelok stated.
There is no guarantee that the pattern will bring accumulating snow in the swath from Washington, D.C., to New York City just yet.
In addition to a possible snowstorm, bands of heavy lake-effect snow will develop as the cold air streams across the Midwest during the middle days of the month. The pattern could unload a few feet of snow and produce local blizzard conditions, where lake-effect bands persist.
The staying power of the mid-month cold blast is uncertain at this time.
"Indications are the polar vortex will again retreat northward after several days," Pastelok said. "There is a significant chance that milder air from the Pacific will mix in from west to east beginning on or before the third week of January."
While the Pacific air would allow temperatures to trend to near or above average in many areas, the recovery would likely stop well short of record warmth.
"Because of a buildup of snowcover over eastern Canada and big storms moving offshore, cold air may continue to periodically invade part of the Northeast, especially New England, during the latter part of January," Pastelok said.
Dar LeGrand Normand ·
If we don't get cold weather down here in Texas, the bugs are going to be so bad in the Spring. Come on cold weather.
Grant McGuire ·
The Jan-Mar outlook is uncomfortably resembling our old fav, the East Trought-West Ridge pattern
Cory Morrison ·
Today was frigid up here, and mid-month may be cold, but this has overall not been a rough winter.
Neven Prvinic ·
True,
with the fall and the December we just had, even if both January and
February end up little below normal (which i would be suprised to see)
we still can not complain.
Cory Morrison ·
Neven Prvinic
I am not going to overreact over today or even next week's cold if it
won't be one of those troughs that has a hard time budging. In fact,
January 3rd 2012 (Yes, 2012) was nearly identical to today's
temperatures up here. I am not saying that this winter will be a repeat
of 2011-12 obviously, but my point is, virtually all of our winters,
even our milder ones, have had days or even weeks like this.
Aaron Ginther ·
Not
a 2011-12, but not another 2014-15 or 2013-14 either. I'm guessing
January turns out close to normal, and February is cold (but not
excessively so). Since December was so warm, meteorological winter as a
whole will still be warmer than average. This could be one of those
winters where if you really wanted to see what the winter was like with
an unskewed average, you'd have to leave out the outlier of the data
(December 2015) and look at January-March 2016. January and February
might eat away at the December warmth, but unlike last year.. nowhere
near enough to erase it.
Cory Morrison ·
Aaron Ginther
it was a similar scenario with last summer up here. Meteorological
summer (June-August) 2015 was a bit cooler than normal, especially since
June was over 2F below normal where I am. However, if one includes the
warm September as part of the summer and look at these timeframes
(June-September, July-September, or perhaps even Astronomical summer)
then it was a closer to normal summer.
Neven Prvinic ·
Cory Morrison
true, we had blustery cold 20's on jan 3rd 2012 here too, and we know
how that winter turned out (we did not have any month that winter that
averaged less then 40F for a high. Of course I do not think this one
will be like that.
Jack Green Jr. ·
SOME PEOPLE ARE JUST RETARTED THE END..!!
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Just
a temporary, tho unpleasant, series of arctic outbreaks caused by that
strong Iceland storm,much like what happened November, 2014 due to that
Pacific storm. The November vortex cold lasted about 2 weeks. Hopefully
this will be equally brief
Cory Morrison ·
It was only 10F where I am today. At least a thaw is coming shortly though.
Neven Prvinic ·
Cory
Morrison we managed to stay in mid 20's all day, but will probably end
up is the upper 10's for a low. Luckily this will be short lived until
the next one. Also most of the city, even here on the east side still
got no snow at all. I did see that some areas about 30 miles norteast of
the city got some snow as did areas 30 miles southwest of the city, it
totally skipped us this time.
Neven Prvinic ·
I
did see one disturbing local forecast that had my area struggling to
get a high of 20F on Monday january 11th after getting to about 50F on
Friday. Both of those are 15F off normal. Looks like this will be a
rollercoaster month, but should end up not far from Normal overall.
Cory Morrison ·
Neven Prvinic so far Saturday is looking to be my area's warm day in the next week.
Aaron Ginther ·
That's
certainly a culprit behind it, but there are other factors that go into
it as well. This would have happened anyway, due to a deep trough
returning to the aleutians, upper level ridging building back over
western Canada, and the series of stratospheric warming events that
helped dislodge the polar vortex. Also the weakening QBO is a
contributor to a polar vortex breakdown, and you could make the argument
that the weather pattern is beginning to respond to the current
weakening process of the El Nino.
Cory Morrison ·
Aaron Ginther
if you look at Brett's most recent post, he seems to think that the mid
January cold snap might be the most significant cold of the season. But
as always, we shall see!
I would not be surprised if February has more significant cold though (But again, not as extreme as last year).
I would not be surprised if February has more significant cold though (But again, not as extreme as last year).
Aaron Ginther ·
It
definitely wouldn't surprise me if the mid-January cold snap is the
most expansive for the winter season, considering how the impacts will
be felt from the Canadian prairies, to the plains, midwest, to the deep
south and the eastern seaboard. But depending on just how cold it gets
here in the east, THE coldest air of this winter season in our part of
the continent might hold off until February. Time will tell, though.
Andrew Zack Junior ·
I mean cold spring
Oh
like I was saying last week the polar vortex is coming back people and
its just the beginning... Will this winter be has brutal has last year
maybe yes maybe no one thing is for sure Winters Are starting to get
real at mid January up untel may we could be in for Another Below
freezing and very Showy Winter here in the north east I'm a cold weather
lover but i just hope I'm wrong and that the 2015-16 Almanac Winter
predictions won't be to brutal happy new year and we are still waiting
for some SNOW FALL here in NJ tired of Sleet & Rain Next week's
Artic Blast should bring some I think spring might be old again at this
rate....
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