January Thaw to Provide Relief Following Another Arctic Blast

January 16,2016
A bitter blast may be plunging into the Midwest, but there is light at the end of a cold tunnel as signs of a January thaw are on the horizon for late next week.
An Arctic blast earlier this past week sent temperatures plunging as low as 36 degrees below zero near Cotton, Minnesota. Now this weekend, a second, more powerful Arctic cold surge will plague the Midwest with bitter cold temperatures into the new week ahead.
(MORE: Another Frigid Blast This Weekend)
Fortunately, if you're suffering the mid-winter January blahs and are not fond of extreme cold, there is a break ahead.

Late Week Moderating Trend

Below-average temperatures will continue into much of the work week ahead from the Great Lakes into the East.
However, the cold air will gradually lose its grip late in the week from southern and central Canada into the northern Rockies, and that milder air should build into the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes next weekend.

Forecast Highs Next Week

And there's a decent chance that milder air spreads into the rest of the East and Southeast in the following week, with only parts of the West still shivering, relative to late-January averages.
(MAPS: 10-day Forecast Highs/Lows)
This could mean highs above freezing next weekend, compared to struggling to rise above zero this weekend, in the Upper Midwest.
Parts of the central Plains, mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys could see highs in the 40s or even a few 50s next weekend.
And how about 60s and 70s in the southern Plains next weekend, where some light snow was falling in parts of Oklahoma and north Texas this Saturday.
(FORECASTS: Minneapolis | Chicago | Dallas | New York)
This easing of the cold is in response to a shift within the large-scale pattern across much of North America.

Pattern Change Details

Over the past week or so, there has been abnormally strong, blocking high pressure aloft over the high latitudes between Greenland and the Canadian Arctic.
That blocking has forced cold air intrusions from Canada into the U.S.
By late in the week ahead, our forecast guidance indicates that blocking between Greenland and Nunavut, Canada will be replaced by general low pressure aloft, with the blocking shifted both well east of Greenland and in the Arctic Ocean well north of Alaska.

ECMWF model analysis and forecast of mid-level atmospheric pattern anomalies. Boxed areas show stronger than average blocking between northern Canada and Greenland (first image: January 13) and an absence of blocking in that same area forecasted on January 22 (second image).

The upshot of this is while the southern-branch jet stream will remain active, keeping the southern tier of states generally wet and chilly, and the West remains generally colder, an easing of the cold is expected late next week, into the following week in the nation's heartland and Northeast. In essence, a January thaw, there.
(MORE: The Coldest Temperature in a Typical Winter)

Forecast temperature departure from average over North America from the ECMWF model's ensemble mean from January 14 through January 28, 2016. Each image corresponds to a five-day period. Warmer-than-average temperatures are shown by yellow, orange and red contours. Colder-than-average temperatures are depicted by aqua, blue and purple contours.

Check back with weather.com for continued updates in the coming days with this expected break from the cold.