January Starts Chilly in the East; Widespread Mid-January Arctic Blast Possible

January 3,2016
A plunge of Arctic air will have much of the East shivering early in the first full week of January, particularly compared to the record warmth we saw in December. However, this could be just the beginning as computer model forecast guidance is indicating the potential for an even colder and more widespread Arctic blast as we head for the middle part of this month.
(MORE: Record December Warmth)
Let's lay out the details of the early week chill first, followed by a preview of what we know right now about the possible second Arctic invasion that may begin to arrive as early as next weekend.

Early Week: Brief Blast of Arctic Air

An Arctic cold front will continue to plunge through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast into early Monday morning. Some snow, mainly light, may accompany the front from northern New England to the Great Lakes.
By Monday, highs will range from 10 to 20 degrees colder than early January averages from New England to the eastern Great Lakes.
Single-digit highs will keep northern New England and Upstate New York shivering. Teens are possible in the eastern and northern Great Lakes, while 20s are all that will be managed from southern New England into parts of the southern Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Thirties for highs are expected from New York City to Washington, D.C.

Forecast Highs Compared to Average Monday

Tuesday the chill will hang in the East with highs generally from 5 to 15 degrees below average from New England to Florida.
(MAPS: 10-day Forecast)
Speaking of the Sunshine State, after sweating through a record hot December, Floridians will experience a breath of fresh, cooler air from this cold front, more typical of this time of year.
Highs into Tuesday should range from the 50s or low 60s in north Florida, to the upper 60s in central Florida, to the upper 60s or low 70s in South Florida. Miami's last daily high in the 60s was February 20.

Forecast AM Lows and Highs Tuesday

The coldest morning appears to be Tuesday morning, where some subzero lows are possible in northern New England, single digits may penetrate into the rest of the region, including near Boston and Hartford, and teens and low 20s could penetrate as far south as parts of piedmont of North Carolina.
(MAPS: 10-day Forecast)
This cold blast will be short-lived, as a warming trend is expected during the latter half of the week mainly east of the Mississippi River. However, more changes may be in store starting next weekend beginning farther to the west.

Mid-January: More Widespread and Colder Arctic Invasion?

Potential Weather Pattern Early Next Week

Long-range computer model forecast guidance strongly suggests a more potent, expansive blast of cold air may arrive starting next weekend, lingering into next week.
(MORE: January-March Temperature Outlook)
By the latter portion of this week, bitter cold air is forecast to build across parts of northern and western Canada. That cold air mass may then get dislodged and sent into the Lower 48, starting as early as next weekend as a large southward dip in the jet stream moves into the central states.
As is typical with invasions of Arctic air in winter, the cold air will be accompanied by a strong area of surface high pressure plunging down the Front Range of the Rockies. The pressure gradient near and east of that high may contribute to gusty winds resulting in low wind chill values as well.
With all of that being said, we still have uncertainty with the timing of the arrival of the cold air, the exact states that could be affected, and just how cold this air mass will be compared to average.
Although it's too early to give specifics, here's a forecast map showing the general forecast high temperature ranges Jan. 10-12, 2016 when this wave of Arctic air is forecast to begin to move into the Midwest and Plains. Keep in mind that this forecast is subject to change, so check back for updates. There also remains uncertainty with how long this mid-January blast of cold air may last.

Potential Forecast Highs Jan. 10-12, 2016

For cities in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, including Billings, Montana, Minneapolis and Fargo, North Dakota, highs may not get out of the single digits or teens. Parts of the Great Lakes and central Plains, including Chicago and Omaha, Nebraska, may only see highs rise into the teens or 20s.
(FORECAST: Bismarck, North Dakota | Chicago | Minneapolis)
Of course, we will also have our eyes on whether any moisture or low pressure systems interact with this Arctic air to produce snow and/or ice. However, it's far too early to speculate on that possibility.
Check back with weather.com for updates on this potential return to a colder weather pattern.

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