Tropical Threat Heightens Risk for Flooding and Mudslides in Mexico, Central America

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

October 19,2015; 10:05PM,EDT

 

 

A tropical low currently drifting westward to the south of Mexico and west of Central America may develop into a named tropical system later this week.
The combination of moving over warm ocean waters with lower wind shear will give a window for tropical development during the middle of the week off the southern coast of Mexico.
In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread from northwest Nicaragua through western Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize through Tuesday.

While not all areas will experience heavy rainfall, the entire region is at risk for rainfall rates 50 mm (2 inches) or greater per hour at times resulting in an elevated risk for flash flooding.
Many locations from southeast Mexico to Belize and Guatemala have already received more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rain including Puerto Angel, Coatzacoalcos, Chetumal and Tuxtla Gutierrez.
Locations such as Guatemala City, Belize City and San Salvador remain at risk for similar rainfall early this week.
As the week progresses, low pressure will gradually become better organized along the southern Mexico coast. By midweek, this low pressure could become the next named tropical system.
However, regardless of development, heavy rain will be a serious concern near and along the southern Mexico coastline from Tapachula to Lazaro Cardenas. Downpours could reach as far north as Manzanillo by Thursday or Friday.
A westward track of this potential tropical system will allow rainfall to diminish from El Salvador and Honduras into Nicaragua as the week progresses.
RELATED:
Central America Weather Center
Detailed Forecast for Guatemala City
AccuWeather East Pacific Hurricane Center
An eventual landfall or at the very least a surge of tropical moisture into south-central and central Mexico is expected during the middle of next week which will continue the threat for flash flooding and mudslides. Acapulco appears to be in line for these potentially life-threatening impacts.
As this moisture and potential tropical system are pulled northward, the unsettled weather could help fuel the development of a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico and will also bring the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Texas and the Gulf Coast.