Potential Tropical Development to Bring Flooding Rain to Texas

By Chyna Glenn, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

October 18,2015; 9:15PM,EDT

 

 

Although the Atlantic has been quiet since Hurricane Joaquin, conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are showing signs that the tropical season may not be finished.
In years of strong El Niño, it is rather difficult for tropical systems to strengthen in the Atlantic due to unrelenting wind shear; this has been the cause for less-than-normal activity during the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Without a parade of storms through the season, the waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been allowed to become very warm, leading to the enhancement of an area of unsettled weather later this week.

South Central Extended Regional Weather Forecast

"An expansive area of showers and thunderstorms will move from the Bay of Campeche into the western Gulf of Mexico this week. This plume of deep, tropical moisture will then move toward Texas and the western Gulf Coast on Thursday," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Ben Noll.
The slow movement of this system in the western Gulf of Mexico could enable enough time for these showers and thunderstorms to organize into a tropical system.
Although sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf will promote tropical strengthening, moderate wind shear will be the factor that inhibits development through the end of the week. Wind shear is a rapid change in direction and speed of air flow at different levels of the atmosphere, which often causes a tropical system to become disorganized.
The most likely scenario for this disturbance is that the moderate wind shear will be too strong to allow for a tropical system to develop. However, even an unorganized system could produce a robust area of showers and thunderstorms.
Whether or not this disturbance can develop into a tropical system, the copious amounts of Gulf moisture brought inland with this system will raise the threat for flooding to parts of Texas and Louisiana later on this week.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor more than 14 million Texas residents are currently impacted by some degree of drought, with close to one-third of the state in a severe-to-exceptional drought.
Noll explains that "While the rain will be beneficial for many drought-ridden areas across central and eastern Texas, too much rain too quickly can bring a new set of problems."
Slow moving torrential downpours can lead to quickly rising water on roads, creating dangerous conditions for those traveling.

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With stubborn high pressure parked over the eastern half of the nation, there is the potential for this system to linger across the South through the weekend.
This high pressure area will act as a wall preventing the moisture from moving eastward away from the region, exacerbating existing flooding concerns.
AccuWeather meteorologists will keep a close eye on this developing system for any changes or updates over the next few days.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer contributed content to this story.