Patricia Heightens Risk for Flooding and Mudslides in Mexico, Central America

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

October 21,2015; 10:13PM,EDT

 

 

A new tropical storm, currently drifting westward to the south of Acapulco, Mexico, will bring the threat for flooding to parts of Mexico and Central America through the end of the week.
The combination of moving over warm ocean waters and lower wind shear allowed Tropical Depression 20-E to take shape on Tuesday just south of Mexico's southern coastline. The depression strengthened and became Tropical Storm Patricia Tuesday evening.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Nicaragua through western Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize Tuesday night are expected to continue into early on Thursday.

San Jose, Guatemala, reported more than 387 mm (15.25 inches) of rain since Sunday. Many locations from southeastern Mexico to Belize and Guatemala have already received more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rain including Puerto Angel, Coatzacoalcos, Chetumal, Tuxtla Gutierrez and Guatemala City.
More rainfall is on the way; while not all areas will experience heavy rainfall, northern parts of central America into southern Mexico are at risk for rainfall rates 50 mm (2 inches) or greater per hour at some point through the end of the week.
A westward track of this tropical system will allow rainfall to diminish from El Salvador and Honduras into Nicaragua as the week progresses.
However, Patricia is expected to become a hurricane later this week before it comes ashore in Mexico.
"Currently, Patricia is expected to make landfall sometime Friday afternoon or Friday evening along the southern coast of Mexico, near the city of Manzanillo," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis.
"Areas along the coast can anticipate damaging winds and sporadic power outages," said Travis. This is in addition to the surge of tropical moisture that will likely bring an elevated risk for flash flooding.
As much as 300 mm (about 12 inches) of rain could be possible, especially in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero.
The most recent satellite imagery of Patricia spinning in the Eastern Pacific (NOAA/Satellite).
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Although Patricia could reach the coastline as hurricane, significant weakening is expected once the center of the storm moves inland.
"After battering the coast, Patricia will need to move over mountains to continue northward," Travis added. "Trying to cross the mountains will weaken the system fairly quickly."
Even though any tropical feature will be shredded apart by the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, moisture will be pulled northward bringing the threat for flooding to northeastern Mexico this weekend.
Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara are also at risk for flooding downpours into the weekend as the tropical system nears Colola and Puerto Vallarta.
While Mexico City may miss the heaviest rainfall, daily thunderstorms are possible through this weekend with downpours capable of producing localized flash flooding.
Mountainous regions across central and southwestern Mexico could get several hundred millimeters (3 to 10 inches) of rain, leading to widespread flash flooding and mudslides.
As this tropical moisture is pulled northward, there will be an elevated threat for flooding in Texas and Oklahoma.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Courtney Spamer contributed content to this story.