Category 4 Hurricane Patricia Threatens Major Mexican Resort Cities; Hurricane Warnings Issued

October 22,2015
Two major Mexican resort cities are under hurricane warnings as Category 4 Hurricane Patricia bears down on Mexico's Pacific Coast, bringing the threat of destructive winds, flooding and mudslides beginning Friday.
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In the past 24 hours, Patricia rapidly strengthened from a tropical storm to a major hurricane. It is forecast to remain a Category 4 cyclone by the time it makes landfall along Mexico's Pacific coast Friday night.
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Latest Storm Status and Satellite Image

As of 4 p.m. CDT, Patricia was located about 250 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, or about 355 miles south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The storm reached hurricane status early Thursday morning and reached Category 4 status, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (210 kph), early Thursday afternoon, according to data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

• A hurricane warning has been expanded to include the Pacific coast of Mexico from San Blas to Punta San Telmo. This warning includes the major coastal resort cities of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo.
• Hurricane watches are in effect east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.
• A tropical storm warning is also in effect from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within 48 hours. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area.
Tropical storm conditions are possible as early as late Thursday night in the warning areas and hurricane force winds are expected to reach the warning area Friday afternoon or evening.
While the resort area of Ixtapa and Zihuatanejo may see heavy rainfall associated with Patricia, there are no watches or warnings for tropical storm or hurricane conditions there. Acapulco is also not under any watches or warnings for Patricia.

Sustained Wind Forecast

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center of Patricia makes landfall. In addition, Mexico's national water comission, CONAGUA, warned Thursday that waves of up to 12 meters (39 feet) may crash onto beaches near the landfall point.
Some additional strengthening is possible given a favorable environment that includes particularly warm sea-surface temperatures and very low vertical wind shear.
The projected path for Patricia shows that the center of the hurricane will make landfall late Friday somewhere on the coast from near Manzanillo to near Puerto Vallarta. Note that even areas outside the projected path, including Manzanillo, could see significant impacts from Patricia.

Projected Path and Intensity

Patricia is expected to dump 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 millimeters) of rain over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Localized amounts as high as 20 inches (500 millimeters) are possible.

Rainfall Forecast

Patricia is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane. If it does so, it would join just three other eastern Pacific major hurricanes to do so this late in the season dating back to 1949.

Watches/Warnings

Once this system moves inland, mid-level moisture and energy from it may get pulled into the south-central U.S. This may add more fuel to a heavy rain and flooding threat in Texas and nearby states this weekend.
MORE: Late Season Hurricanes (PHOTOS)