There is some chance the storm could go into the Gulf and some chance it will swing offshore, but the most likely path is toward the Florida peninsula. Note that the odds of Miami or the Keys or Palm Beach getting the worst of it are all the same. So don't focus on any one spot at this point.
Nobody knows the outcome here. There is a somewhat unfavorable atmosphere between the storm and the Bahamas. In addition, if Erika tracks on the left side of the cone, which it seems to be leaning toward now, the high mountains of the Caribbean islands would have a weakening effect between tomorrow and Saturday.
Since we don't know what will be left of the system by late Friday – it could be anything from a blob of moisture to a well-formed, strong circulation – we can’t predict with any certainty what will happen over the weekend.
We do know, however that NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE.
There is a long history of hurricanes intensifying just offshore of South Florida – including Katrina, Andrew, and Cleo. The ocean is always favorable, so when the atmospheric pattern lines up, things can come together quickly.
Dealing with a hurricane always means preparing mentally and physically. Mentally, we need to force ourselves to continue to pay attention even if the storm is weak and battered over the Caribbean islands, until we're sure it’s too beaten down to restrengthen – like we saw with Danny. We had some confidence that Danny would die, but we're less sure this time.
We also need to be ready for a fast-developing storm near Florida on an uncertain track even up to the last day before landfall, if that comes.
All of which means, it’s time to do the physical things you need to do in case all this happens. Publix opened at 7:00 AM.
No comments:
Post a Comment