Danny to Bring Beneficial Rain to Drought-Stricken Northern Caribbean Islands

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

August 24,2015; 11:02PM,EDT

 

 

With Danny still approaching the northern Caribbean Islands, it may be just what the doctor ordered for the drought-stricken region.
As of 10:30 a.m. EDT Monday, Danny became a tropical rainstorm and was located about 45 miles west-southwest of Guadeloupe.
Stronger wind shear and drier air caused Danny to weaken from the Category 3/major hurricane status it achieved on Friday.

Breaking: Danny Brings Rain to the Leeward Islands

"Wind shear is when strong winds near the surface and aloft blow strongly from different directions," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will likely keep Danny from strengthening significantly.
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"Essentially, Danny will affect many of the northern islands of the Caribbean as a tropical rainstorm," Sosnowski said.

"Despite weakening, impacts will still be felt in the form of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall early on Monday morning and lasting through the day on Monday [in the Leeward Islands]," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey.
Surf will also become rough as Danny approaches.
Bands of locally heavy rain and some gusty winds associated with Danny will reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday night into Tuesday then Hispaniola later on Tuesday into Wednesday.
A general 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) will fall along Danny's path with the heaviest and potentially locally higher amounts 4 inches (100 mm) occurring north and east of Danny's center. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides may result.
Wind gusts will average 40 to 60 mph (65 to 95 kph) with the strongest gusts set to whip the northern Leeward Islands on Monday.
"[These] gusty winds could produce sporadic power outages with some damage possible to poorly built structures and weaker trees," Duffey continued. As Danny weakens, the danger of damaging winds will lessen and the positives of the storm will further outweigh the negatives.

In areas where rain spirals in and lingers, the effect can be very beneficial.
"A weakened Danny may be just what the doctor ordered for drought-stricken areas from the Leewards to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with rounds of drenching rain," stated AccuWeather Tropical Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
The United States Drought Monitor reported last Thursday that nearly 25 percent of Puerto Rico, with the area concentrated on the eastern half of the island, was suffering from an extreme drought.
Officials on Puerto Rico were forced to enact water rationing programs with the island in one of its worst droughts in history.
"Since Danny is no longer very organized, some locations in the northern Caribbean will receive only a small amount of rainfall," Sosnowski said. "So while the system will help many locations, it may not bring bring an end to the drought everywhere along its path."

Through Aug. 22, rainfall this year has been held to 45 percent of normal at St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands and 20 percent of normal at Princess Juliana International Airport on the island of Saint Maarten.
The status of Danny later this week and any future impacts to the United States will be determined by its track across the northern Caribbean.
Danny is likely to be shredded apart by the mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. If Danny shifts its track north of the Greater Antilles, wind shear could slacken enough for Danny to gain some strength and increase the impacts to the Bahamas.
Satellite imagery of Danny (Image/NOAA)
The AccuWeather Hurricane Center will continue to closely monitor the future track of Danny, as well as other tropical features.
On deck are two more systems being monitored.
One is a tropical disturbance located about half way between the Cape Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands and another near the Cape Verde Islands.
The leading tropical disturbance is forecast by AccuWeather meteorologists to become the next tropical depression and then Tropical Storm Erica.
The lead disturbance is likely to take a track through the Atlantic similar to Danny but could then turn to the northwest.
The non-tropical system spinning near Bermuda is struggling to take on partial tropical characteristics.
"The system produced rounds of showers and thunderstorms on the islands of Bermuda this past weekend and will continue to do so for the next couple of days," Sosnowski said.
The broad system near Bermuda has been producing rough seas along the southeastern New England coast.
Meanwhile, downpours will target Hawaii this week as Kilo gradually strengthens and attempts to approach.