Typhoon Nangka Sets Its Sights on Japan (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: July 12,2015
Typhoon Nangka has strenthened back into a Category 2 equivalent typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean, well southeast of another west Pacific system, Chan-hom.
While currently over remote open waters well northwest of Guam, Nangka may pose a threat to parts of Japan later this week.
As of 5 a.m. Japanese time Monday (5 p.m. EDT Sunday in the U.S.), Nangka was about 645 miles northwest of Guam, 770 miles southeast of Okinawa, and 1,160 miles south of Tokyo. It was moving toward the northwest at about 6 mph.

Enhanced Satellite: Nangka

Nangka is expected make a sharp turn toward the north over the next 24 hours and gain additional strength. After that, high pressure in the upper atmosphere is expected to develop over or just south of mainland Japan, which may then bend Nangka back toward the northwest again. As is typical, Nangka should weaken somewhat as it approaches the Japanese mainland late this week.
After that, Nangka may round the western side of that upper-level high and push northward.
Of course, the timing of all of these track bends is crucial in determining what parts of Japan may eventually be impacted. If this general outlook holds, Nangka will threaten parts of Japan by Thursday or Friday.

Nangka Forecast Path

At this time, both the official Japanese Meteorological Agency forecasts and those from the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center show the center of Nangka moving toward western Japan – including the island of Shikoku, western parts of Honshu, and possibly the island of Kyushu. Depending on the exact track and intensity of Nangka, parts of central Japan – including the heavily populated Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto metropolitan areas – could see significant impacts from Nangka.
For now, all interests from Okinawa to mainland Japan should closely monitor the progress of Typhoon Nangka.
(FORECASTS: Okinawa | Nagasaki | Tokyo)
Nangka briefly became a super typhoon -- maximum sustained winds reaching 150 mph -- late Thursday into early Friday, before northerly wind shear eroded convection on the north side of the circulation Friday.
According to hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, Wednesday, July 8 marked the first time in over 20 years that three typhoons were active in the western Pacific basin at the same time (Chan-hom, Linfa and Nangka).

MORE: Super Typhoon Maysak Images (March-April 2015)