Typhoon Nangka Remains on Collision Course With Japan

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

July 13,2015; 10:20PM,EDT

 

 

Typhoon Nangka remains on a collision course with Japan for later this week, posing significant dangers to lives and property.
Nangka is a powerful typhoon and is expected to continue to strengthen over the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean through midweek, approaching super typhoon intensity.
This animated satellite image of Nangka is courtesy of NOAA.
Strengthening Nangka will pose a threat only to shipping interests through Tuesday night by churning over open water, but dangers across Japan will be on the rise later in the week as Nangka approaches and then slams onshore.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey expects Nangka to make landfall "after dark Thursday (local time)."
Latest indications point toward Shikoku facing a direct landfall by Nangka, whose strength at that time will likely be equal to that of a Category 2 or minimal Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific (maximum sustained winds of 155 to 190 kph or 95 to 120 mph).

Prior to landfall, rain will increase across Japan Wednesday and Wednesday night with conditions worsening further closer to the site of Nangka's landfall on Thursday.
Shikoku and neighboring parts of Kyushu and southern Honshu face Nangka's destructive winds, flooding rain and an inundating storm surge later this week. Residents should be spending the first part of this week taking the necessary precautions, including heeding evacuation orders, to protect lives and property.
Oita, Kochi, Okayama and Osaka are among the cities in the path of Nangka's fury.
"Storm surge will be a serious problem with Nangka with the surge potentially funneling into the Kii Channel and even the Osaka Bay, threatening to severely flood coastal portions of the Kii Peninsula." Duffey warned.
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The greatest storm surge will be greatest near and east of where Nangka makes landfall.
In addition to the storm surge, extremely rough surf will build along the southern coast of Japan later this week, threatening to significantly impact shipping and create life-threatening conditions for anyone who attempts to enter the water.
While conditions will be worse to the south, surf will also build across the Sea of Japan later this week and lead to coastal flooding along the northern coast of western Honshu.
Nangka threatens to unleash between 150 and 300 mm (6 and 12 inches) of rain in and around Shikoku. Duffey is concern for significantly higher amounts in localized areas, especially in the mountainous terrain. That amount of rain is sure to trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

The threat of heavy rain and localized flooding will extend well away from where Nangka comes onshore.
"Tokyo could receive up to 50 mm (2 inches) of rain in 24 hours," continued Duffey. "Heavy rain should even spread to Hokkaido later this weekend, where the ground will already be saturated from Chan-hom's rain."
Impacts from Nangka will not be limited to just Japan. Outer rain bands and strong wind gusts could graze southeastern South Korea as Nangka begins to curve to the northeast. Coastal flooding may also become a concern.
Residents of Japan and South Korea should continue to check back with AccuWeather for the latest details on this dangerous typhoon.