Typhoon Nangka: Potential Threat to Japan Next Week (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: July 10,2015



 
Typhoon Nangka remains a Category 3 equivalent typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean, well southeast of another west Pacific system, Chan-hom.
While currently over remote open waters northwest of Guam, Nangka may pose a threat to parts of Japan next week.
As of 10 a.m. Japanese time Saturday (10 p.m. EDT Friday in the U.S.), Nangka was about 980 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. It was moving toward the west-northwest at less than 10 mph.

Enhanced Satellite: Nangka

Nangka briefly became a super typhoon -- maximum sustained winds reaching 150 mph -- late Thursday into early Friday, before northerly wind shear eroded convection on the north side of the circulation Friday.
Nangka is expected to curl northwestward this weekend and continue weakening a bit more under the influence of the aforementioned wind shear.
Next week, high pressure aloft is expected to develop over or just south of mainland Japan, which may then bend Nangka on a sharper west-northwest path, during which Nangka may regain some strength.

Nangka Forecast Path

After that, Nangka may round the western side of that upper-level high and push northward.
Of course, the timing of all of these track bends is crucial in determining what parts of Japan may eventually be impacted. It remains far too soon to tell which parts of Japan, if any, Nangka will impact.
If this general outlook holds, Nangka may threaten parts of Japan by the second half of next week.
For now, all interests from Okinawa to mainland Japan should closely monitor the progress of Typhoon Nangka into next week.
(FORECASTS: Okinawa | Nagasaki | Tokyo)
According to hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, Wednesday, July 8 marked the first time in over 20 years that three typhoons were active in the western Pacific basin at the same time (Chan-hom, Linfa and Nangka).

MORE: Super Typhoon Maysak Images (March-April 2015)