Typhoon Chan-hom To Intensify; Late-Week Threat to Okinawa, Taiwan, China (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: July 6,2015
Typhoon Chan-hom is gradually gaining strength and poses a significant threat to the far southwest islands of Japan, including Okinawa, as well as Taiwan and eastern China late this week.
Chan-hom's center is now about 810 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base on Okinawa and moving west around 10 mph.

Enhanced Satellite: Chan-hom

Sunday, Chan-hom soaked Guam with up to 16 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service.
Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, reported a peak wind gust to 62 mph Sunday afternoon. Guam International Airport just east of Hagatna, Guam, clocked a peak gust to 43 mph, while Rota Island measured a peak gust to 37 mph.
High surf is expected to persist through Wednesday on south and west-facing shores due to Chan-hom, as well as Nangka.
(FORECAST: Guam)
Chan-hom is expected to continue to track west-northwest around the southwest side of high-pressure aloft.
Like Super Typhoon Dolphin in May, Chan-hom may undergo a period of rapid intensification in this zone of the Philippine Sea.
With the upper-level ridge extending rather far to the west over or near southwest Honshu Island, Japan, and the jet stream remaining well to the north, Chan-hom will be a threat to the southwest Japanese islands (including Okinawa), Taiwan and eastern China late this week, possibly as a strong typhoon.

Chan-hom Forecast Path

Details on the exact track at this time are still uncertain, therefore, it is not yet known where the worst of Chan-hom will be experienced. Here is our best estimate of the potential timing of the closest approach of Chan-hom (all times local):

• Okinawa: Thursday night/early Friday
• Taiwan: Friday/Friday night
• Eastern China: Saturday

(FORECAST: Taipei | Shanghai)
Those with interests in the southwest islands of Japan (Okinawa), Taiwan or near the Chinese coast of the East China Sea should monitor forecast updates on Chan-hom the next several days. Chan-hom is then likely to slow down once inland, with a threat of flash flooding in eastern China this weekend.
Chan-hom isn't the only system we are tracking in the western Pacific.
Typhoon Nangka is well east of Chan-hom and will likely pass well north of Guam later this week. Nangka may, however, threaten Iwo Jima (Iwo To) this weekend, possibly as a strong typhoon. It remains too soon to tell whether Nangka may eventually pose a threat to mainland Japan next week.
Tropical Storm Linfa has produced locally heavy rainfall over the northern Philippines, and will creep slowly northward toward the Taiwan Strait, bringing more heavy rain to parts of Taiwan this week. Linfa's circulation may be weakened further by what is expected to be a much stronger Chan-hom later this week.
Meteorologist Chris Dolce contributed to this report.

MORE: Super Typhoon Maysak Images (March-April 2015)