By Brian Lada, Meteorologist
June 18,2015; 11:00PM,EDT
The western Pacific has been void of tropical systems over the past few weeks, but this is expected to change heading into July.
An uptick in tropical activity may come as early as next week with the increased activity lasting through July.
"Areas from the Philippines through eastern China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan should be on alert for potential landfalling cyclones," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.
People in these areas should restock on emergency supplies now rather than later in preparation of the increased tropical activity.
For communities around the northern South China Sea, the tropical threat may evolve as soon as early next week.
"There are signs that a monsoon low will attempt to develop into a full blown tropical system in the northern South China Sea early next week," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani.
The recent lull in tropical storm activity comes after an unusually active start to the western Pacific tropical season.
Satellite image showing the eye of Super Typhoon Maysak on April 1, courtesy of NOAA/NASA.
There have already been seven tropical systems over the western Pacific this year, two tropical storms and five typhoons.
Of these five typhoons, three of them, Maysak, Noul and Dolphin, went on to become super typhoons.
The tropics have remained quiet since Dolphin dissipated on May 19, giving this region of the world a break from tropical systems.
"Although not unheard of, it is abnormal for there to be no tropical systems in the Western Pacific Basin for a month's time from May into June," said Leister.
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One of the reasonings behind the increase in tropical activity heading into July is a meteorological phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, commonly referred to as MJO.
This has a direct correlation with tropical activity in the Indian and Pacific oceans and can aid in the formation of tropical systems.
"The MJO leads to enhanced areas of rising air, which then translates into increased thunderstorm activity," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.
The MJO cannot tell meteorologists exactly when and where tropical systems will develop, but it can help give a general idea of what the weather pattern will be like and whether or not it favors tropical development.
Heads up in the W-Pac. Strong MJO wave will bring enhanced threat for tropical cyclones June25-July10.
"A secondary impact with this active pattern in the Western Pacific is that a higher frequency of cyclones will likely lead to multiple recurving storms that could produce long-duration troughs over the eastern third of the United States, leading to above-normal precipitation and cooler-than-average daytime temperatures," said Leister.
Typically when a powerful typhoon recurves, it takes 10 to 14 days to have an impact on the United States.
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