Strengthening Tropical Storm Carlos to Impact Mexico This Weekend

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

June 11,2015; 11:22PM,EDT

 

 

The third tropical depression of the year has formed south of Mexico on Wednesday and strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlos on Thursday.
A track toward the northwest is expected to continue through Friday night. This track will be over very warm ocean waters and light to moderate wind shear which will allow Carlos to strengthen further and likely become a hurricane on Saturday.
The current forecast track would keep the strengthening storm from making landfall in Mexico; however, Carlos will pass close enough to Mexico that heavy rainfall will be possible, mainly along the coast.

There greatest flood threat will be in the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca; mudslides are possible as well due to the rugged terrain of the region.
Even though the Carlos will be strengthening, it will remain far enough offshore to limit any damaging wind threat. The main threat will continue to be flooding rainfall with areas from Acapulco to Manzanillo in the highest threat zone.
RELATED:
Blanca Makes Record Landfall on Baja California Peninsula
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
Mexico Weather Center
While continuing on a northwest track next week, the Carlos will encounter cooler waters as it moves south of Baja California. Much like Blanca, these cooler waters will act to weaken the cyclone significantly prior to a potential landfall in Baja California. It is also possible that Carlos weakens over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific with no impacts to southern Baja California.
Anyone living in or traveling to areas from southern Mexico to Baja California should closely monitor the movement of this tropical threat over the next few days.