Rain to Soak Southeast, Raise Flooding Risk During First Part of June

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

June 2,2015; 7:58PM,EDT

 

 

The weather pattern that delivered drenching rain and flooding to Texas and the southern Plains during May will soak the Southeast states for the next week or two.
Many locations in the South have received less than 50 percent of the average rainfall during May and could benefit from the wet weather pattern.
While many areas will receive needed rain in the pattern, some locations may get too much rain at one time, leading to the potential for flooding.

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The wet pattern could also do more than spoil a day at the beach or pool. Downpours can slow travel on the roadways, while locally strong storms could lead to airline delays.
A southward dip in the jet stream will set up east of the Mississippi River this week. The jet stream is a river of air that guides weather systems along and separates cool air to its north from warm air to its south.
The pattern will pump Gulf of Mexico moisture in across the Southeast.

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The combination of a moist atmosphere with strong June sunshine and cool air aloft will lead to pockets of strong thunderstorms and torrential rainfall.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, "The wettest weather will set up just east of the jet stream dip and this axis of wet weather will meander farther east and farther west over the next couple of weeks."
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This means some days the worst of the rain will be focused along the Atlantic Seaboard and other days the rain will expand to the Appalachians and even part of the Mississippi Valley.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Todd Miner, downpours will raise the risk of flash and urban flooding in the Carolinas.

"The same setup will draw copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and set the stage for tropical downpours in Florida this week," Miner said.
Speaking of tropical moisture, an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean is being watched for slow development over the next week as it drifts northward.
"We believe that disruptive winds aloft will prevent rapid development of the system as it drifts northward across Cuba, the Florida Straits and the Bahamas late in the week," Kottlowski said.
Kottlowski stated that it is possible the system may develop once it gets north of the Bahamas, but it is likely that the system would stay offshore of the United States with the anticipated jet stream pattern.
June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
While the Southeast states turn wet, cooler and humid, Texas and the southern Plains will dry out and heat up with only sporadic storms expected. The break in storms is following frequent rounds of flooding rain and severe weather during May that broke the long-term drought.