Oman Likely Target of Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

June 10,2015; 8:54PM,EDT

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa is expected to slowly track westward over the next several days with a potential landfall in Oman.
The warm waters of the Arabian Sea allowed Ashobaa to strengthen through Wednesday, though some weakening is now expected as Ashobaa closes in on Oman and interacts with dry air aloft.
The heaviest rain and wind associated with the storm will remain over the open waters of the Arabian Sea through the middle of the week. However, seas will be rough for boaters and swimmers across the northern part of the sea.

Ashobaa will face a battle with drier air as it moves westward toward the coast of Oman later this week which will end any strengthening and likely start to weaken the cyclone.
The potential also exists for Ashobaa to stall offshore, limiting the extent of heavy rainfall that would impact Oman and allowing dry air to continue to weaken the storm.
"There is significant dry air over land and a lack of tropical moisture across the northern Arabian Sea," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
Nicholls explained that once Ashobaa nears the coast, the cyclone should tend to weaken as dry air wraps into its center.
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If the dry air totally overwhelms Ashobaa, the demise of the cyclone would come before it reaches land. The coastline could still be impacted by flooding downpours, but interior parts of Oman would be spared any life-threatening impacts.
If Ashobaa can overcome the drier air and remain an organized cyclone to the point of landfall, heavy rain would spread into the interior of Oman. "This could pose a major flooding risk across the desert terrain," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Heavy rain could spread into Oman as early as Thursday with additional heavy rains possible on Friday.
The threat of rough surf will gradually diminish across the entire region as the cyclone weakens either over the Arabian Sea or inland across Oman late this week.

The area of greatest concern for flooding rainfall at this time extends from areas south and east of Muscat in the north to Duqm along the southeast coastline.
The danger of damaging winds will be minimal even if Ashobaa makes landfall, since the drier air will cause the cyclone to be past its peak intensity.
"It is better to prepare now than to be caught unprepared," added AccuWeather Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani.
"The circulation around the storm will also bring increased moisture to [the west coast of India] from Surat to Mumbai to Kochi, leading to rounds of showers and thunderstorms," Douty said. Some of the rain will be heavy and will unleash excessive downpours.
Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski contributed to this story.