Heavy Rain, Flooding Expected in the Plains, Midwest (FORECAST)

Chris Dolce
Published: June 11,2015



 
Numerous bouts of heavy rain will impact many states from the Upper Midwest and Plains to the western Gulf Coast into early next week. Flash flooding will be a threat anywhere thunderstorms or large complexes of thunderstorms unleash torrential downpours in a short period of time across those regions.

This map shows that rainfall is less than 10 percent of average through the first nine days of June in much of Texas, Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Kansas.
(NOAA)

This includes portions of the Southern Plains, where record-breaking rains led to disastrous flooding in May. Although the first one-third of June has thankfully been very dry in Texas, Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Kansas, soils remain saturated. Therefore, any clusters of rain and thunderstorms that develop and move slowly could lead to localized pockets of flash flooding, however we do not expect a renewed bout of widespread flooding in those areas at this time.
(MORE: Wettest Month on Record)
Below we have the forecast showing the areas of concern, and the meteorology behind this flood threat.

Forecast: Plains and Midwest Flood Threat

Rainfall Forecast

Current Radar and Flood Alerts

Through Thursday night and into early Friday, a complex of rain and thunderstorms will move across the Upper Midwest and into the western Great Lakes. Some flooding is possible from parts of Iowa and northern Missouri to extreme southeastern Minnesota, northern Illinois, Wisconsin and Lower Michigan.
Heavy downpours are also possible in a separate area from the Front Range of Colorado into Kansas. Colorado recorded its wettest May on record last month, so any additional excessive rainfall may trigger flooding there.
(MORE: Interactive Radar Map)
Friday into Friday night, a flare-up of thunderstorms will bring a heightened risk of flooding to a corridor from the Texas Panhandle to western and central Oklahoma.
This weekend into early next week, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common across a wide swath of the Central U.S., including parts of the Plains, Upper Midwest and the western Gulf Coast.
Though it's difficult to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall many days in advance, our rainfall forecast map gives a general idea of what we expect. The swath of the heaviest forecast rainfall amounts is aligned across a corridor from the Texas Panhandle to portions of western/central Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, northern Missouri, Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Soils are saturated in parts of northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri due to rainfall last month and earlier this month, so that is one area to watch for an enhanced flooding potential.
A separate area of heavy rainfall may focus on locations from the upper Texas Coast to Louisiana.
In addition, severe storms with a threat of wind damage and hail will be possible at time in the central states.
(MORE: Severe Weather Forecast)

Rainy Setup

Rainfall Setup Late Week

The first ingredient for this rainy setup is a persistent pipeline of moisture flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico. This is due to the southerly wind flow on the western periphery of an area of high pressure centered off the Southeast coast.
With plenty of moisture in place, we need lift in the atmosphere to help generate clouds that are capable of producing rain and thunderstorms. The lift is being supplied by a series of disturbances aloft that will move from the Rockies into the Plains states.
Finally, the tail end of a front will also play a role in helping to trigger the thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds will be relatively light, and oriented somewhat parallel to the stalled frontal boundary. So, individual thunderstorms and thunderstorm clusters may be slow-moving, raising the threat of flooding.

PHOTOS: May 2015 Flooding in the Southern Plains